Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/7/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Boston Red Sox on August 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of competitive seasons, with the Royals at 63-52 and the Red Sox at 61-51. This matchup marks the third game of their series, with the Red Sox looking to build on their momentum after winning the previous game.

The Royals are projected to start Cole Ragans, who has been performing at an elite level, ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Ragans boasts a solid ERA of 3.36 and an impressive 28.9% strikeout rate, which could serve him well against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. However, one concern for Ragans is his tendency to allow hits, projected at 5.3 per outing.

In contrast, the Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford, who ranks 77th among starting pitchers and has a decent ERA of 3.77. While Crawford has been effective, his higher FIP of 4.75 suggests he may be due for a downturn in performance. Additionally, he faces a Royals offense that, despite ranking only 12th overall, has shown flashes of power, particularly from their recent standout, Vinnie Pasquantino.

Given the projections, the Royals appear to have the upper hand, especially with their stronger pitching matchup. The moneyline reflects this sentiment, favoring Kansas City at -150, which implies they should score around 4.62 runs today. Conversely, the Red Sox are listed as underdogs at +130 with an implied total of 3.88 runs, indicating a challenging outing ahead. All in all, this matchup presents an intriguing dynamic as both teams vie for supremacy in this series.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Boston's 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #8 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Boston's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Maikel Garcia, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+16.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.64 vs Kansas City Royals 4.9

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.