Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 7/24/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Boston Red Sox at Coors Field on July 24, 2024, the two teams find themselves in starkly different positions this season. The Rockies, with a 37-65 record, are enduring a terrible season, while the Red Sox, sitting at 54-46, are performing above average. This game marks the third in their interleague series, and Boston has been on a roll, winning their last game against Colorado convincingly.

On the mound, the Rockies will start Cal Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Quantrill holds a 6-7 record with a 4.15 ERA, but his 4.66 FIP suggests he's been somewhat lucky and could see his performance decline. Quantrill's peripherals, as projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, are less than encouraging: he is expected to allow 3.5 earned runs and 6.5 hits over 5.4 innings, while striking out just 4.4 batters. These projections align with his ranking as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Red Sox counter with Nick Pivetta, who has been solid with a 4-6 record and a 3.87 ERA. Pivetta's 3.26 SIERA indicates he's been unlucky and might improve moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.7 hits, with 5.8 strikeouts. Ranked as the 76th best starting pitcher, Pivetta has a favorable matchup against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Red Sox hold a clear advantage. Boston's lineup is ranked 6th overall, boasting a 4th-best team batting average and 8th in home runs. In contrast, the Rockies are more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 14th in both overall offense and batting average, and 13th in home runs.

Recent form also favors Boston. Tyler O'Neill has been red-hot, hitting .435 with four home runs and a 1.458 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Ezequiel Tovar has been the Rockies' best hitter recently, batting .400 with two home runs and a 1.100 OPS over four games.

With a high game total set at 10.5 runs, expect a potentially high-scoring affair. The Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -160, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, Boston appears poised to capitalize on their strengths and secure another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta's slider usage has increased by 11.1% from last season to this one (17.4% to 28.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Masataka Yoshida is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the weak infield defense of Colorado (#29-worst of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Boston Red Sox are expected to score the most runs (6.03 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has notched a 2.33 K/BB rate this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

• K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher's effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).

Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 66 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+15.50 Units / 97% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6.03 vs Colorado Rockies 5.45

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