Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/22/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds, currently sitting at 36-39, will host the Boston Red Sox, who hold a 40-36 record, at Great American Ball Park on June 22, 2024. This interleague matchup sees two teams with contrasting seasons: the Reds are having a below-average year, while the Red Sox are performing above expectations.

The Reds will send Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas, a right-hander, has an average season with a 4.62 ERA and a 3-5 record over 13 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Montas is ranked the 102nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he's an average performer. His projected stats for this game are concerning, as he is expected to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.2 hits over 5.7 innings, which could be problematic against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Boston counters with Nick Pivetta, another right-hander, who has a 3.88 ERA and a 4-4 record in 10 starts. Ranked 80th among starting pitchers, Pivetta has been solid, and his 3.38 SIERA suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. Pivetta's projections indicate he might struggle with efficiency, pitching only 4.9 innings, but he is expected to allow fewer runs and hits than Montas.

Offensively, the Reds have struggled, ranking 21st in overall offense and 27th in team batting average. However, they lead MLB in stolen bases, which could be a factor if they manage to get on base. Jeimer Candelario has been their standout hitter recently, batting .350 with a 1.033 OPS over the last week.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, boast the 5th best offense in MLB, with strong rankings in batting average and stolen bases. Ceddanne Rafaela has been on fire, hitting .611 with a 1.520 OPS over the last week. This offensive firepower could pose significant challenges for Montas and the Reds' bullpen, which is ranked 23rd.

Boston's bullpen, ranked 27th, has been even worse, potentially making this a high-scoring affair. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, and with both teams having high implied team totals, expect plenty of action.

Given the Red Sox's stronger season, better starting pitcher, and superior offense, they have the edge in this matchup. However, with both bullpens struggling, this game could be closer than expected. Betting markets have the Red Sox as slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has relied on his slider 10.8% more often this season (28.2%) than he did last season (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Connor Wong is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all starters, Frankie Montas's fastball velocity of 94.4 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Will Benson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 78.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.41 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.9

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