Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 6/8/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox prepare for their June 8, 2024, matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field, the two teams find themselves in strikingly different seasons. The White Sox, sitting at 16-48, are struggling mightily, while the Red Sox, with a 32-32 record, are having a more average campaign.

Nick Nastrini will take the mound for Chicago, hoping to turn around what has been a tough year. Nastrini carries a 0-5 record and a dismal 9.74 ERA through five starts. However, his 7.14 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. Despite his low strikeout rate (13.6%), he might find some success against a Boston lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts. Nastrini's projected line from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, doesn't inspire much confidence, with an average of 4.7 innings, 2.9 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.7 walks allowed per start.

On the other side, Brayan Bello will be on the hill for Boston. Bello boasts a 6-2 record and a 4.36 ERA over ten starts. His 3.51 xFIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky as well. Bello projects to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 5.8 hits, and 1.4 walks—a solid line for the Red Sox. Boston's offense, ranked 7th in MLB, should provide ample support. Enmanuel Valdez has been particularly hot, hitting .350 with a 1.281 OPS, three homers, and eight RBIs over the last seven games.

Chicago's offense, on the other hand, has been dreadful, ranking 30th in both team batting average and overall performance. Andrew Vaughn has been a rare bright spot, hitting .438 with two home runs and a 1.346 OPS over the last week. However, facing a groundball specialist like Bello might neutralize their already limited power.

Both bullpens rank poorly, with the White Sox at 24th and the Red Sox at 22nd in Power Rankings, but Boston's superior offense and the pitching disparity make them the favorites. The current odds reflect this, with Boston at -210 and an implied win probability of 65%.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all SPs, Brayan Bello's fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 85th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.119) suggests that David Hamilton has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .234 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Nick Nastrini is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games (+5.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games (+15.65 Units / 67% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.16 vs Chicago White Sox 3.68

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.