Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 3/31/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on March 31, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the American League East. The Orioles hold a record of 2-2, while the Red Sox are struggling at 1-3, marking the beginning of a crucial series for both clubs. Baltimore's offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 5th in MLB and boasting a remarkable 2nd in home runs. In their last outing, the Red Sox suffered a tough loss, which underscores their need for improvement.

On the mound, Cade Povich is set to take the ball for the Orioles. Although he ranks as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB, his projections indicate he may struggle, averaging 4.7 innings with 2.5 earned runs and 4.7 hits allowed. Conversely, Sean Newcomb, projected to start for the Red Sox, is also facing challenges, expected to pitch an average of only 3.7 innings with 2.2 earned runs. Both pitchers have underwhelming strikeout projections, which could lead to a high-scoring affair given the offensive capabilities on display.

Baltimore's offense is highlighted by a standout hitter who has recently recorded 5 hits and 2 home runs over the past week, contributing significantly to the team's success. In contrast, while the Red Sox have a solid 7th-ranked offense, their best hitter is struggling with a low .700 batting average and only 2 home runs in the same timeframe.

The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring game. With the Orioles favored at a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 5.09 runs, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Red Sox squad.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Sean Newcomb has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Triston Casas is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #4 club in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jorge Mateo is quite quick, placing in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.9 ft/sec since the start of last season.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 154 games (+17.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 66 away games (+6.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Newcomb - Red Sox
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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