Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 7/20/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox at Dodger Stadium on July 20, 2024, fans are in for an intriguing interleague matchup. This is the second game of the series between these two contending teams. The Dodgers, with a 56-41 record, are having a great season, while the Red Sox at 53-42 are also performing well. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, adding extra significance to this matchup.

Justin Wrobleski gets the nod for the Dodgers, despite struggling in his limited appearances this season. With only two starts to his name, Wrobleski sports a 6.30 ERA and a win/loss record of 0-1. His xFIP of 5.28 suggests some bad luck, but his peripheral stats indicate he has a lot to prove. Facing a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup, Wrobleski could exploit their tendency to whiff, giving him a potential edge.

On the mound for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who has been solid with a 10-5 record but less impressive with a 5.32 ERA. Bello's xFIP of 3.71, however, suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could be due for better results. The Dodgers' powerful offense, ranked 1st overall by THE BAT X, poses a significant challenge. They are 3rd in home runs and 6th in batting average, making it crucial for Bello to keep the ball on the ground.

Offensively, the Dodgers have a clear edge. They lead MLB in offensive power rankings, and their bats have been consistently strong all season. The Red Sox, while also impressive with the 6th best offense and 4th in batting average, will have to contend with a Dodgers bullpen ranked 9th by advanced metrics, significantly better than Boston's 23rd-ranked bullpen.

Betting lines reflect the competitiveness of this matchup. The Dodgers are current favorites with a -140 moneyline, translating to a 56% implied win probability. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have a +120 moneyline, giving them a 44% implied win probability. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.5% vs. 43.1% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 100.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Romy Gonzalez, David Hamilton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Typically, bats like Gavin Lux who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.92 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.6

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