Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/4/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles gear up for the third game in their series on July 4, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, there’s a lot on the line. The Orioles currently hold an impressive 54-31 record, ranking 2nd in best offenses in MLB this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners are battling with a 47-40 record, striving to keep their above-average season on track.

Seattle’s Bryce Miller and Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes are set to take the mound. Miller, who is pegged as the #100 best starter in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid with a 6-7 Win/Loss record and a 3.88 ERA. Conversely, Burnes, the #24 best starter, boasts a stellar 9-3 Win/Loss record and a phenomenal 2.28 ERA, despite an xFIP suggesting he might regress.

Miller is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, a decent mark for any starter. However, his high-flyball tendency (39% FB rate) could spell trouble against the Orioles' potent lineup, which leads MLB with 139 home runs. Seattle’s offense, ranked 25th overall and dead last in team batting average, may struggle to provide him the run support needed against Burnes, who’s expected to allow just 2.1 earned runs over 5.9 innings.

The X-factor for the Mariners could be Josh Rojas, who’s been red hot over the last week, hitting .417 with a .962 OPS. Still, the Orioles counter with Heston Kjerstad, who’s been on a tear himself with a .417 batting average and an eye-popping 1.563 OPS, driving in 8 RBIs in his last four games.

The Mariners' bullpen lags behind, ranked 24th, while Baltimore's relief corps sits comfortably at 10th. This advantage, coupled with their superior starting pitcher and explosive offense, makes Baltimore the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -145, translating to an implied win probability of 57%.

All signs point to Baltimore maintaining their winning edge, especially considering Seattle has a very low implied team total of just 3.23 runs for today’s game. With both teams vying for postseason positioning, this matchup has significant implications for the stretch run.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Gunnar Henderson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 25.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seamer percentage has fallen by 13.7% from last year to this one (58.5% to 44.8%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Mitch Haniger is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+15.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.39 vs Seattle Mariners 3.42

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.