Baltimore Orioles VS Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Wells - Orioles
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 120, Pirates 1.5 -140
• Money Line: Orioles -135, Pirates 115
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -115

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 55%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 55.64%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 44.36%

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Baltimore Orioles on April 6, 2024, at PNC Park. As the home team, the Pirates will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 6-2. The Orioles, as the away team, have also been performing well with a record of 5-2. This interleague matchup promises an exciting game for both teams.

The Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Falter is ranked as the #397 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst in the league. However, his 7.58 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tyler Wells, who has been performing at an average level. Wells has a 4.50 ERA this season, but his 2.49 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve in future games.

The Pirates have been showcasing a strong offense this season, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 26th in the league, indicating room for improvement. The Orioles have also been displaying a solid offense, ranking as the 9th best in MLB.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Pirates have the 10th best bullpen according to our Power Rankings, while the Orioles rank 22nd. This could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Orioles have a higher implied team total of 4.50 runs.

With the Pirates having a better record and a stronger offense, they may have an edge in this matchup. However, the Orioles have been performing well and could pose a challenge. Betting markets expect a close game, with the Orioles being favored with a higher implied win probability of 55%.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tyler Wells in the 75th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Henry Davis (the Pirates's expected catcher today) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.64 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.89

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