Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles get set for their second matchup in this series on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations this season. While the Twins have had an average season with an 82-78 record, the Orioles have managed to post a solid 89-71 record, showcasing their stronger performance throughout the year. This game presents an intriguing American League matchup at Target Field.

On the mound, the Twins will rely on Zebby Matthews, a right-hander who has had a tough season with a 5.71 ERA. Despite his struggles, his xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and might be poised for better results. Matthews will face an Orioles offense that ranks 6th best in MLB, with the 2nd most home runs recorded this season. This could spell trouble for Matthews, given his tendency to allow fly balls. However, the Twins' offense, ranking 11th, will look to capitalize on Albert Suarez’s vulnerabilities, as the Orioles pitcher has been fortunate this season with a 3.74 ERA that belies his 4.51 xFIP.

The advanced-stat Power Rankings further illuminate the matchup, with the Twins bullpen ranked as the 23rd best and the Orioles slightly better at 17th. Despite the Twins' poor ranking in the bullpen, their offense has shown some pop, albeit ranking dead last in stolen bases. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton and Ryan Mountcastle have been the respective standouts for their teams over the past week, with each swinging a hot bat.

In terms of projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting a close game. The offensive firepower of the Orioles could be the deciding factor in what promises to be an exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Albert Suarez has a tough challenge being matched up with 6 bats in the projected lineup who share the same handedness in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.388) provides evidence that Jordan Westburg has had some very poor luck this year with his .343 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Colton Cowser hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned 3rd-steepest in baseball this year, Minnesota Twins batters collectively have put up a 14.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 102 games (+13.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.63 vs Minnesota Twins 5.23

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