Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Odds – 8/4/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on August 4, 2024, the stakes are high with both teams enjoying strong seasons. The Guardians, sitting at 67-43, boast a solid grip on their playoff ambitions. The Orioles are close behind at 66-46, making this matchup pivotal in the American League landscape.

On the mound, the Guardians are set to start Gavin Williams, whose mixed season reflects a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 3.72. The projections suggest he may struggle, projecting him to throw an average of 4.7 innings with a subpar 4.4 hits allowed. However, the Guardians' bullpen ranks 3rd best in MLB, potentially providing a safety net should Williams run into trouble.

In contrast, Corbin Burnes of the Orioles stands as one of the league’s elite pitchers, holding an impressive 2.47 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 11-4. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs, although he too faces challenges with an elevated hits projection of 5.3.

When it comes to offense, the Guardians rank 13th overall, while the Orioles shine as the 2nd best offensive squad in the league, particularly excelling in home runs with their top ranking. However, with the Guardians showcasing a strong bullpen and facing a slightly more inconsistent starter in Williams, they may have a chance to pull off an upset, particularly with the Orioles struggling in recent outings. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should expect a competitive showdown at Progressive Field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order ranks as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams has utilized his slider 15.9% less often this year (6.2%) than he did last season (22.1%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

David Fry is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+16.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.58 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.14

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.