Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/26/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 26, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox will be hoping to turn their season around as they take on the Orioles, who have been performing exceptionally well. This American League matchup is the fourth game in the series between the two teams.

The White Sox, with a record of 15-38 this season, are having a tough year. They are projected to start Garrett Crochet, an elite left-handed pitcher. Crochet has started 11 games this season and has a win/loss record of 5-4. His ERA stands at 3.75, which is considered good. However, his 2.77 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Orioles, with a record of 32-18, are having a great season. They are projected to start Kyle Bradish, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing exceptionally well. Bradish has started 4 games this year and boasts an impressive ERA of 2.41. However, his 3.27 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

In terms of offense, the White Sox rank as the worst team in MLB this season. Their team batting average and home run rankings are both in the bottom half of the league. In contrast, the Orioles have a strong offense, ranking seventh overall in MLB. Their team batting average and home run rankings are both in the top half of the league.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Orioles have the 14th best bullpen in MLB, while the White Sox have the 24th best. This could be a factor to consider in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. The White Sox, with a current moneyline of +135, have an implied win probability of 41%. The Game Total for today's game is set at 7.0 runs, which is relatively low.

Overall, the Orioles have been performing well this season and have the edge in terms of offense and bullpen. However, the White Sox will be looking to capitalize on their elite pitcher, Garrett Crochet, to turn their season around. It will be an intriguing matchup between these two teams as they battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Bradish is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #2 HR venue in the league — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Garrett Crochet will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andrew Vaughn's speed has gotten better this season. His 25.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.24 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+1.70 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.49 vs Chicago White Sox 3.52

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