Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague matchup at Nationals Park on May 8, 2024. The Nationals, with a season record of 18-17, are having an average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 23-12 record, indicating a great season for them.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 this year and an excellent ERA of 2.53. However, his 3.11 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward. On the other hand, the Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Bradish, who has been performing exceptionally well with a 1.93 ERA. However, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

Parker is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings on average, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and giving up 4.7 hits and 1.9 walks. Bradish, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and giving up 5.7 hits and 1.5 walks.

In terms of offense, the Nationals rank 19th in MLB this season, while the Orioles rank 2nd, indicating a significant disparity in offensive performance. The Nationals have a good team batting average, ranking 6th in MLB, but their home run production is ranked 29th, which is a weakness. The Orioles, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking 14th in team batting average and 17th in both home runs and stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Nationals rank last in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Orioles rank 8th, indicating a significant advantage for the Orioles in the late innings.

Looking at the betting odds, the Orioles are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -170, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, with an implied win probability of 39%.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers, the offensive rankings, and the bullpen strength, the Orioles appear to have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. So, be prepared for an exciting game between these two teams.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Bradish's 2384.4-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 81st percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan Mountcastle's 12% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan McKenna).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jacob Young's quickness has fallen off this year. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.48 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+18.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 123 games (+22.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 30 games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.07 vs Washington Nationals 3.81

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