Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 6/19/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

With the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles both having stellar seasons, their June 19 matchup at Yankee Stadium is set to be a heavyweight clash. The Yankees, boasting a 51-24 record, sit atop the AL East, while the Orioles, at 47-25, are hot on their heels. This game is the second in the series, coming off yesterday's action that saw the Yankees emerge victorious. The result adds an extra layer of importance as both teams jostle for division supremacy.

New York will send their ace, Gerrit Cole, to the mound. Cole, a right-hander ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, will look to dominate despite some mixed projections. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees Cole pitching only 5.0 innings while allowing 4.3 hits and 1.2 walks—both considered unfavorable. However, his projected 2.2 earned runs allowed is excellent, and the 5.9 strikeouts are a solid number.

The Orioles counter with Cade Povich, a lefty who has been average this season. He projects to pitch 4.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which are below-average figures. Povich also projects to give up 4.7 hits and 2.1 walks, highlighting potential trouble against a potent Yankees lineup.

Offensively, the Yankees are a force, ranking 5th in team batting average and 2nd in home runs. Over the past week, Jose Trevino has been their standout hitter, boasting a .333 batting average, 1.417 OPS, and three home runs over five games. The Orioles aren't far behind with the 10th best team batting average and leading MLB in home runs. Anthony Santander has been their beacon of consistency, hitting .304 with four homers and eight RBIs in his last six games.

With the Yankees favored at -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, they look to carry their momentum forward. The Orioles, at +145, have an implied win probability of 39%, which reflects their underdog status despite a strong season. Today's game total is 8.5 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair given the offensive firepower both teams possess. As both clubs continue their push for division dominance, this game promises intrigue and excitement.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cade Povich is projected to throw 85 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year. His 40.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Gerrit Cole's high usage rate of his fastball (53% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

New York Yankees batters as a unit rank in the league for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+21.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+19.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.17 vs New York Yankees 4.46

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