Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/28/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves square off on July 28, 2024, at Citi Field in the final game of their four-game series. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets holding a 55-49 record and the Braves sitting at 55-48. This National League East matchup is critical as both teams are vying for playoff positioning.

On the mound, the Mets will start David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher with a 5-0 record and a stellar 3.14 ERA. However, his 4.64 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate this year and may be due for regression. Peterson’s high walk rate (10.8 BB%) could be a concern, but the Braves' offense ranks 5th in MLB for least walks, potentially giving Peterson an edge.

Reynaldo Lopez will start for the Braves. The right-hander boasts an impressive 2.12 ERA and a 7-4 record but, similar to Peterson, has been lucky as indicated by his 3.85 xFIP. Lopez projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, both of which are average, but his propensity to allow hits and walks could be exploited by a Mets offense that ranks 7th in MLB overall and 4th in home runs.

Offensively, the Mets have been on a roll, with Jeff McNeil hitting .391 with a 1.226 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves' most potent hitter recently, boasting a .350 average and a 1.130 OPS in his last six games.

With both pitchers projected to allow a decent number of hits and walks, this game could hinge on which bullpen performs better. The Mets' bullpen ranks 21st in the Power Rankings, while the Braves' bullpen is a solid 7th.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with both teams sitting at -110 on the moneyline, implying a 50% win probability for each. Given the metrics and projections, the Mets' potent offense and home-field advantage might offer a slight edge in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Reynaldo Lopez ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2138-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 21st percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Francisco Lindor has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 92 games (+13.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 92 games (+29.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 11 games (+11.40 Units / 68% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.33 vs New York Mets 4.46

Get daily MLB picks here.