Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/25/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

All eyes will be on Citi Field on July 25, 2024, as the New York Mets face off against the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a crucial National League East series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mets posting a 53-48 record and the Braves sitting slightly ahead at 54-46. This matchup has significant implications for the division standings, and the pitching duel is set to be an intriguing one.

The Mets are projected to start right-hander Luis Severino, who has been solid with a 7-3 record and a 3.58 ERA. However, his 4.41 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season, indicating potential regression. Severino is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. He'll face a Braves lineup that ranks 14th in MLB in offense and 10th in home runs but struggles with a 17th-ranked team batting average.

On the mound for the Braves will be the elite left-hander Chris Sale, boasting an impressive 13-3 record and a stellar 2.70 ERA. Sale is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow only 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters on average. Sale's high-groundball rate (49%) could neutralize the Mets' powerful offense, which ranks 4th in home runs but relies heavily on hitting the ball in the air.

The Mets' offense has been one of the best in MLB, ranking 7th overall and 10th in team batting average. Jeff McNeil has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .400 with a 1.509 OPS, four home runs, and eight RBIs in six games. Meanwhile, Zack Short has been the Braves' standout over the past week, hitting .333 with a 1.167 OPS in four games.

The Braves' bullpen is ranked 7th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, slightly better than their year-to-date performance, while the Mets' bullpen sits at 19th. This suggests the Braves might have a slight edge in the later innings.

While the betting markets have the Braves as slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 54%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Mets to have a 51% win probability. This suggests there might be value in betting on the Mets, especially considering the close nature of this matchup.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested battle that could come down to the bullpens. The Mets' home-field advantage and the potential value in the betting market make this a game worth watching closely.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Due to his large platoon split, Chris Sale will have a disadvantage being matched up with 8 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive ability to be a .350, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .062 deviation between that figure and his actual .412 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 88th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last week's worth of games, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 84 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+19.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 29 games (+26.80 Units / 92% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.11 vs New York Mets 3.78

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