Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/1/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Atlanta Braves on April 1, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Dodgers enter this game with a perfect 6-0 record this season, showcasing their strength as one of the top teams in MLB, while the Braves are struggling at 0-5. After losing their previous game in the series, the Braves will aim to bounce back, but they face a tough task against the Dodgers, who are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dustin May.

May's season has been average, ranking as the 104th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings but is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs on average, while also struggling with walks and hits allowed. In contrast, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 7th overall. Sale's high strikeout rate (31.8 K%) could pose problems for a Dodgers offense that strikes out frequently, but he also faces a potent lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in offensive production.

The Dodgers have an impressive offense, ranking 2nd in the league with a great batting average and home run performance, while the Braves have shown some power of their own, ranking 4th in home runs but struggling otherwise. With both their offensive and pitching advantages, the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.49 runs, making them a significant favorite in this contest. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive atmosphere as both teams look to establish their identity early in the season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.358) may lead us to conclude that Michael Harris II has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .312 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 97 games (+28.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 156 games (+35.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chris Sale has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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