Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks 7/11/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves are set for the fourth game of their series on July 11, 2024, at Chase Field. The Braves, currently with a record of 51-40, are having a good season and lead the series. The Diamondbacks, at 46-47, are striving for consistency. This National League matchup features Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks and Max Fried for the Braves, each with notable differences in performance.

Pfaadt, right-handed and ranked as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has an ERA of 4.19 but an xERA of 3.50, suggesting he’s been unlucky. His record stands at 3-6, and he’s expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average. His peripherals indicate he may have better outings ahead. On the other hand, Fried, a lefty and the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a stellar 3.18 ERA, though his xERA of 3.70 hints at possible regression. With a 7-4 record, Fried is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, giving up 2.4 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 11th overall, with strengths in batting average (8th) and home runs (15th). Their best hitter recently has been Kevin Newman, boasting a .417 batting average and a 1.045 OPS over the last week. The Braves, ranking 13th overall offensively, have Austin Riley in hot form with a .320 batting average and a 1.120 OPS in his last seven games.

The Diamondbacks bullpen is ranked 18th, average at best, while the Braves' bullpen is 6th, showcasing a significant advantage late in the game. Betting markets reflect this, with the Braves at -135 (implying a 55% win probability) and the Diamondbacks at +115 (45%). THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 54% win probability, making them the slight favorites despite the betting odds suggesting a very close game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Max Fried (52.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.284) suggests that Eddie Rosario has had some very poor luck this year with his .237 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt has gone to his sinker 11% more often this season (20.9%) than he did last season (9.9%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Randal Grichuk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Arizona has not been good at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (91.4 mph) ranks among the league's worst: #27 in baseball this year.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 69 games (+21.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.72 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.99

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