Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 7/8/2024

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves

Jul 8, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

  • Date: July 8, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Chris Sale - Braves
    • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Braves -180, D-Backs 155
Runline: Braves -1.5 -110, D-Backs 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Atlanta Braves - 62% Atlanta Braves - 53.99%
Arizona Diamondbacks - 38% Arizona Diamondbacks - 46.01%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are slated to take on the Atlanta Braves in a National League showdown at Chase Field on July 8, 2024. This game marks the first in their series and features a compelling pitching matchup between two southpaws: Jordan Montgomery for the D-Backs and Chris Sale for the Braves.

The Diamondbacks are having an average season with a 45-45 record, while the Braves are faring better at 49-39, positioning them as a strong contender. The D-Backs will be looking to gain some momentum at home, but they face an uphill battle as major underdogs, with an implied win probability of just 36%. On the flip side, the Braves have a 64% implied win probability, reflecting their status as significant favorites.

Jordan Montgomery, who has been serviceable but not spectacular this season, will have his hands full against a Braves offense that ranks 13th in MLB. While the Braves are only 16th in team batting average, they have enough firepower to make things difficult for Montgomery. Additionally, the Atlanta bullpen ranks as the 7th best, suggesting that the D-Backs will have limited scoring opportunities throughout the game.

Chris Sale, the ace of the Braves' staff and the #4 best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X (the leading MLB projection system), will look to continue his dominant season. With an 11-3 record and a stellar 2.71 ERA, Sale is expected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average today. While certain metrics like his projected 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks allowed aren't ideal, his projected 6.7 strikeouts provide a strong counterbalance. These numbers will be put to the test against the D-Backs' offense, which ranks 8th in MLB.

The Diamondbacks' recent offensive surge has been led by Christian Walker, who has been on fire over the last week. Walker boasts a .407 batting average with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs in his last six games. On the other side, Ozzie Albies has been the Braves’ standout hitter, hitting .391 with a 1.112 OPS and 2 home runs over the same period.

The Game Total for today stands at 8.0 runs, which is average, but given the offensive talent on both sides and Sale's dominance, it's anyone's guess how the scoring will unfold. Will Montgomery rise to the occasion and counteract the Braves' offense, or will Sale add another win to his impressive season? This matchup is a must-watch for any baseball fan, especially those with an eye on the betting lines.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to average, Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.1 adjusted pitches each game.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph average.

  • Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

With 6 batters who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Yilber Diaz ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.253) implies that Kevin Newman has been lucky this year with his .301 actual wOBA.

  • xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Corbin Carroll hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games (+17.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.89 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.22

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-113
83% ATL
-105
17% ARI

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/+102
3% UN
9.0/-122
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+140
84% ATL
+1.5/-166
16% ARI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ATL
Team Stats
ARI
3.86
ERA
4.66
.240
Batting Avg Against
.253
1.28
WHIP
1.35
.300
BABIP
.300
8.7%
BB%
8.6%
24.5%
K%
21.9%
74.1%
LOB%
70.1%
.275
Batting Avg
.254
.502
SLG
.420
.847
OPS
.742
.345
OBP
.323
ATL
Team Records
ARI
29-17
Home
24-23
22-24
Road
23-24
32-29
vRHP
33-29
19-12
vLHP
14-18
26-22
vs>.500
22-29
25-19
vs<.500
25-18
5-5
Last10
6-4
10-10
Last20
11-9
16-14
Last30
17-13
B. Elder
Y. Diaz
138.0
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
9-4
W-L
N/A
3.46
ERA
N/A
6.52
K/9
N/A
2.93
BB/9
N/A
0.91
HR/9
N/A
75.1%
LOB%
N/A
11.8%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.27
FIP
N/A
4.36
xFIP
N/A
.236
AVG
N/A
17.6%
K%
N/A
7.9%
BB%
N/A
4.63
SIERA
N/A

B. Elder

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 TEX
Dunning N/A
L1-3 N/A
4.1
4
3
3
1
3
41-69
4/24 MIA
Luzardo N/A
L4-5 N/A
4.2
5
2
2
4
6
54-96
4/17 SD
Darvish N/A
L1-2 N/A
4.1
3
2
2
3
5
51-89
4/12 WSH
Corbin N/A
W16-4 N/A
5.2
6
3
3
4
0
50-85

Y. Diaz

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ATL ARI
ATL ARI
Consensus
-210
+178
-113
-105
-218
+180
-115
-105
-196
+164
-118
+100
-215
+180
-113
-105
-220
+180
-115
-105
-225
+180
-120
+100
Open
Current
Book
ATL ARI
ATL ARI
Consensus
-1.5 (137)
+1.5 (+107)
-1.5 (+137)
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (140)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (128)
+1.5 (-102)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (133)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (140)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (135)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
9.0 (-121)
9.0 (+101)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (-118)
9.0 (-104)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-104)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)