Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Pick For 6/9/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hurston Waldrep - Braves
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park for the fourth game of their series. The Nationals, currently holding a 29-35 record, have struggled this season and sit towards the bottom of the National League East standings. In contrast, the Braves are enjoying a solid season with a 35-27 record, reflecting their status as contenders within the same division.

Washington will give the nod to left-handed pitcher DJ Herz, who has had a tough start to his season with an 0-1 record and a 9.00 ERA. Despite these struggles, Herz’s xFIP of 5.26 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. However, his projections for today's game are not promising, with an expected 4.1 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 3.9 strikeouts. Herz's high walk rate of 9.5% could be a concern, but interestingly, the Braves rank 6th in least walks, indicating they might not fully exploit this weakness.

Atlanta will counter with right-hander Hurston Waldrep, who is also not considered one of the league's top pitchers but has fared slightly better than Herz. Waldrep is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs today, which, while not stellar, might be enough against a weak Nationals offense. Washington’s lineup ranks 28th in MLB offensively and struggles with power, sitting 28th in home runs. They do excel on the base paths, leading the league in stolen bases, which might be one of their few offensive advantages.

In terms of recent performance, the Nationals' Jesse Winker has been hot over the last week, hitting .478 with an OPS of 1.017. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna has also been a standout, batting .381 with a 1.101 OPS across his last six games.

The Braves bullpen, ranked 11th, significantly outperforms the Nationals' pen, which sits at 29th. Atlanta’s stronger offense, which ranks 10th overall, and their bullpen edge may prove decisive.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored with a 56% projected win probability versus the implied odds of 60%. Meanwhile, the Nationals have an implied win probability of 40% but are projected to have a slightly better chance at 44%. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, expect a potentially high-scoring affair, but lean towards the Braves to continue their strong season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Hurston Waldrep has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Matt Olson has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games (+17.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 away games (+10.20 Units / 78% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.56 vs Washington Nationals 4.85

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