Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Prediction – 7/29/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves are set to kick off a National League series on July 29, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers, boasting a 60-45 record, are having a strong season and currently sit in playoff contention. The Braves, with a 56-48 record, are also performing above average but find themselves in a more precarious position in the standings.

Milwaukee will send Colin Rea to the mound, who has a 9-3 record and a solid 3.60 ERA this season. However, his 4.39 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could be due for some regression. Rea is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, which isn't an encouraging forecast. On the other side, Atlanta's Grant Holmes, who has split his time between starting and the bullpen, will start. Holmes has an impressive 2.70 ERA, but his 3.52 xFIP also hints at potential regression. He is projected to pitch just 3.8 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Brewers have been one of the better teams this season, ranking 10th overall and 5th in team batting average. Their offensive prowess will be crucial against Holmes, who has shown good control but is susceptible to hits and runs. Jake Bauers has been a standout for Milwaukee over the last week, posting a .364 batting average and a 1.318 OPS.

The Braves' offense ranks 15th overall and 17th in team batting average, making them an average offensive unit. Orlando Arcia has been their best hitter recently, with a .350 batting average and a .935 OPS over the last week. However, Atlanta's bullpen, ranked 3rd in the Power Rankings, could be a significant factor in keeping the game close.

The Brewers are currently favored with a moneyline of -130, translating to an implied win probability of 54%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Milwaukee a 51% chance to win, indicating a close matchup. With both teams projected to score over 4 runs, fans can expect an engaging and competitive game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Colin Rea is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph dropping to 80.9-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively place 24th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 85 games (+26.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 away games (+12.05 Units / 77% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.01 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.8

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.