Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/27/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Chad Kuhl - White Sox

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox, enduring a dismal season with a 21-61 record, host the Atlanta Braves at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 27, 2024. The Braves, on the other hand, are enjoying a solid campaign, sitting at 44-34. This interleague matchup features a stark contrast in starting pitchers: Chad Kuhl for the White Sox and Chris Sale for the Braves.

Kuhl, who has yet to start a game this year, has struggled mightily in his limited appearances, posting a 9.82 ERA. Despite a peripheral indicator suggesting some bad luck (5.79 xFIP), his projections remain bleak, forecasting 4.1 innings, 2.7 earned runs, and 3.4 strikeouts on average. Kuhl's high-walk rate (23.5 BB%) might be less of a factor against the Braves, who rank 6th in least walks, potentially giving him a slight edge.

Conversely, Sale has been a beacon of consistency and excellence for the Braves. With a 9-2 record and a pristine 2.98 ERA over 14 starts, he ranks as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sale's 2.48 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. Projections have him going 6 innings with 2.2 earned runs and 7.8 strikeouts on average. His groundball-heavy approach (50 GB%) may neutralize the White Sox's power deficiencies, as they rank 27th in team home runs.

The White Sox offense, ranked 30th in MLB, will have its hands full against Sale. Paul DeJong has been their standout hitter, though Gavin Sheets has been hot recently, batting .375 over the last week. In contrast, the Braves boast the 12th best offense, led by Marcell Ozuna, who has a .305 batting average and .956 OPS this season. Jarred Kelenic has been on fire lately, hitting .417 with 2 home runs in the past week.

The betting market heavily favors the Braves, with a moneyline of -290 and an implied win probability of 72%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the White Sox a 34% chance to win, suggesting potential betting value on the underdog. The White Sox's implied team total is a low 3.01 runs, while the Braves' is a high 4.99 runs, reflecting the expected dominance of Sale over Kuhl. With a game total of 8.0 runs, this matchup presents a classic case of a struggling team facing an uphill battle against a superior opponent.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

As a result of his large platoon split, Chris Sale will be in a tough position being matched up with 9 hitters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jarred Kelenic has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Lenyn Sosa has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.43 vs Chicago White Sox 3.58

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