Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 6/12/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves face off in the second game of their interleague series on June 12, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams are looking to solidify their standing in their respective leagues. The Orioles, boasting an impressive 44-22 record, are enjoying a stellar season, while the Braves, at 35-29, are having an above-average year.

The Orioles will send left-hander Cade Povich to the mound. Povich, with a 10.13 ERA and a 0-1 record from his sole start this season, has struggled but has also been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 7.81 xFIP. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he'll likely pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and issuing 1.5 walks. His high walk rate (16.0%) could be mitigated against a Braves offense that ranks 6th in least walks in MLB.

The Braves will counter with right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach. With an 8.38 ERA and a 0-2 record from two starts this season, Schwellenbach has also faced some tough luck, evidenced by his 4.56 xFIP. Projections suggest he'll pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.3 batters. His low walk rate (6.7%) may give the Orioles an edge, as they rank 3rd in least walks, making them more likely to capitalize on Schwellenbach's strike-throwing tendencies.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 3rd in MLB, with notable power, leading the league in home runs, and boasting a top-eight batting average. Ryan O'Hearn has been particularly hot, hitting .409 with a 1.182 OPS over the last week. The Braves' offense, ranking 11th, has been solid but less explosive, with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge, hitting .348 with a .940 OPS in the last seven games.

The Orioles' bullpen, ranked 17th, might have a tougher test compared to the Braves' 9th-ranked bullpen, but with their high-powered offense and better overall season performance, they have a slight advantage. Betting markets reflect this with the Orioles' moneyline at -135, suggesting a 55% implied win probability, while projections give them a 52% win probability, indicating a close game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 10.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves projected lineup projects as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Cade Povich should be in good shape facing 6 hitters in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Adley Rutschman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 29 away games (+13.64 Units / 38% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+12.80 Units / 51% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.7 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.66

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