Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 6/18/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and the Arizona Diamondbacks will kick off a National League matchup on June 18, 2024, at Nationals Park. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Nationals holding a 35-36 record and the Diamondbacks at 35-37. This series opener features Jake Irvin for Washington and Slade Cecconi for Arizona, both right-handed pitchers.

Jake Irvin, despite his 5-5 record, boasts an excellent 3.00 ERA over 14 starts. However, his 3.55 xFIP suggests he may regress. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.8 walks. While his strikeout projection is below average at 4.1, his consistent performance gives the Nationals a slight edge on the mound. Slade Cecconi, on the other hand, has struggled, carrying a 1-5 record and an inflated 6.70 ERA. His 4.85 xFIP indicates potential improvement, but he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.0 walks over 5.3 innings. His 3.5 strikeout projection is notably poor.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the upper hand, ranking 9th in MLB, compared to the Nationals’ 25th ranking. Arizona excels in batting average, ranking 8th, while Washington lags at 20th. However, the Nationals' strength lies in their speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Over the last week, CJ Abrams has been a bright spot for Washington, hitting .391 with a 1.221 OPS. Randal Grichuk has led the Diamondbacks, boasting a .333 average and a 1.345 OPS over the same span.

Bullpen performance could be a deciding factor, with both teams struggling. The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 28th, and the Diamondbacks' ranks 24th. Given these weaknesses, the high Game Total of 9.0 runs seems justified.

Despite the close odds, Washington's slight edge in starting pitching and home-field advantage make them a slight favorite. The Nationals' current moneyline at -115 implies a 51% win probability, suggesting a competitive but winnable game for Washington.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Slade Cecconi (39.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Washington's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Joc Pederson may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (47% vs. 35.4% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Batters such as Luis Garcia with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Slade Cecconi who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.09 vs Washington Nationals 4.67

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.