Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a National League matchup on May 8, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a record of 16-19, are having a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 16-20, are struggling with a bad season.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft, who has a win-loss record of 3-1 this year with an ERA of 3.63, which is considered good. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ashcraft is ranked as the #92 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average performance. He is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters per game. However, he is also expected to allow 6.2 hits and 1.7 walks, which are considered below-average and terrible, respectively.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has a win-loss record of 1-2 this year with an ERA of 5.63, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.65 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better going forward. Montgomery is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters per game. Like Ashcraft, he is also expected to allow a high number of hits (6.0) and walks (1.6) per game.

In terms of team rankings, the Reds have the 27th best offense in MLB, while the Diamondbacks have the 10th best offense. The Reds offense ranks 14th in team batting average and home runs, but they lead the league in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks offense ranks 11th in team batting average and 19th in home runs, but they rank 3rd in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Reds have an implied win probability of 48% with a moneyline set at +100. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have an implied win probability of 52% with a moneyline set at -120. The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in terms of offense, while the Reds may have the edge in pitching. Jordan Montgomery, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Reds offense, which could work in his favor. However, the Reds' patient offense may struggle to draw walks against Montgomery's good control, negating one of their strengths.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup with the Diamondbacks having a slight advantage. However, with the unpredictability of baseball, anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's curveball percentage has spiked by 7.2% from last season to this one (22.2% to 29.4%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft was rolling in his last game started and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

This year, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.53 ft/sec last year to 29.87 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 97 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.98

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