Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Giants, with a record of 68-70, are having an average season, while the Diamondbacks are enjoying a solid campaign at 77-61. This matchup is crucial for the Giants as they look to keep their Wild Card hopes alive, although they have already been eliminated from contention for the division title.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively against the Giants, who are currently struggling to find consistent hitting. The Giants rank 21st in MLB offensively this season, which is a stark contrast to the Diamondbacks, who boast the 2nd best offense in the league. This disparity suggests a tough outing for San Francisco, especially with Zac Gallen taking the mound for Arizona. Gallen, ranked 35th among starting pitchers, has a solid ERA of 3.87, and he projects to pitch 5.8 innings today while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs.

On the other hand, the Giants will start Hayden Birdsong, who has had a challenging year, holding a 5.14 ERA and ranking 172nd among MLB starters. Birdsong’s projections indicate he may struggle again today, with an average of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed.

While the Giants' bullpen is ranked 1st in MLB, which could provide some relief, their offense's inability to produce runs remains a significant concern. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the Giants are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +120. As the Diamondbacks continue to capitalize on their offensive strengths, they will aim to extend their lead in the playoff race against a Giants team that needs a spark to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his slider 5% more often this year (8.4%) than he did last year (3.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson's true offensive skill to be a .353, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .045 deviation between that figure and his actual .398 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all starting pitchers, Hayden Birdsong's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph ranks in the 89th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (99% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 106 games (+25.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.16 vs San Francisco Giants 3.83

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