Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 5/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on May 22, 2024. The Dodgers, who currently hold a record of 33-18, are having a great season and are the home team for this game. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have struggled with a record of 23-26, making this a below-average season for them.

The Dodgers are projected to start their elite right-handed pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has struggled this year. Glasnow, ranked as the seventh-best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a stellar record of 6-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.90. Despite his excellent performance, his 2.37 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

In contrast, Nelson has a record of 2-3 with a dismal ERA of 7.06. However, his 4.17 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings. While Glasnow is known for his high strikeout rate, Nelson is a low-walk pitcher, which could pose a challenge for the patient Dodgers offense, who lead the league in walks.

The Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first overall. They excel in home runs, ranking second in the league, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 20th. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have a solid offense, ranking tenth overall, with a strong focus on stolen bases, where they rank third.

Based on the projections, the Dodgers are heavily favored to win this game, with a projected win probability of 70% according to THE BAT X. The Dodgers' strong offense and elite pitching from Glasnow give them a significant advantage over the struggling Diamondbacks.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has averaged 95.4 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll's quickness has dropped off this season. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.2 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 13.7% less often this season (42.8%) than he did last year (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (39.9) may lead us to conclude that Mookie Betts has had bad variance on his side this year with his 21.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jason Heyward pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+16.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.96 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77

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