Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals Pick For 7/23/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and the Arizona Diamondbacks face off on July 23, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium in the second game of their interleague series. The Royals, with a solid 56-45 record, are enjoying a good season, while the D-Backs, at 51-50, are having an average year. Both teams are battling for playoff contention, adding an extra layer of importance to this matchup.

Kansas City has been bolstered by the hot bat of Bobby Witt Jr., who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .800 with a staggering 2.290 OPS, 12 hits, 7 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in just four games. On the mound, the Royals will start Alec Marsh, a right-hander who has been average this season with a 4.52 ERA. Marsh's 7-6 record over 17 starts reflects his inconsistency, and he projects to pitch just 4.5 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs today.

The Diamondbacks will counter with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who has struggled mightily this season with a 6.44 ERA despite a 6-5 record in 12 starts. Montgomery's xFIP of 4.58 suggests he's been unlucky and could improve, but his projections for today are not promising—4.0 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs, and only 2.6 strikeouts.

Both offenses are relatively evenly matched. Kansas City's offense ranks 14th in MLB, with notable strengths in batting average (10th) and stolen bases (8th). Arizona's offense is slightly better overall, ranking 10th, with a 9th in batting average. However, the D-Backs' offense has been average in home runs (16th) and stolen bases (17th).

The bullpens are similarly average, with the Royals ranked 16th and the D-Backs 14th in the Power Rankings. Given the high Game Total of 9.5 runs, expect a potentially high-scoring affair.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks have a slight edge with a 52% win probability, aligning with the betting markets which have Arizona at -120 and Kansas City at +100. Given Montgomery’s potential for improvement and the D-Backs’ slightly better offense, Arizona might just have the upper hand in this closely contested game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jordan Montgomery to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 71 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Kansas City's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

As a team, Arizona Diamondbacks hitters have done poorly in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 4th-worst in the game.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Alec Marsh has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching an 8.25 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.01 — a 0.76 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kansas City Royals batters as a unit rank near the top of MLB this year (5th-) when assessing their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 99 games (+11.59 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.26 vs Kansas City Royals 4.76

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