It’s a Big Ten basement brawl on Saturday as Penn State (3–6, 0–6 Big Ten) travels to face Michigan State (3–6, 0–6) in a must-win game for both teams. Neither side has won a conference game yet this season and both teams need to win out to make it to bowl season. Before kickoff from East Lansing, continue reading to get my Penn State vs Michigan State prediction.
Our Penn State vs Michigan State Pick
- Pick: Michigan State +7.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Both teams enter this game scuffling. Penn State has dropped six straight games and that has resulted in the firing of their coach and an injury to starting quarterback Drew Allar. Michigan State is coming off a bye but has been unable to turn the corner after several close losses. They most recently suffered a 23-20 overtime defeat to Minnesota.
It will be interesting to see how the Nittany Lions perform after their last game. Against Indiana last week, they nearly pulled off a huge upset, but allowed a late touchdown in the final minute. That fight could be a sign of life, though they could also struggle to maintain that level of play. Michigan State will look to take advantage of being on their home field agianst a struggling opponent. Their offense has underperformed for much of the season, but they may be sharper after a week off.
Quarterback Play
Penn State is without Drew Allar for the rest of the season. That has meant Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback for the Nittany Lions. Grunkemeyer went toe-to-toe with Heisman Trophy contender Fernando Mendoza last week and he will try to build on that here.
Michigan State’s quarterback situation is less clear. Aidan Chiles has 1,392 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 picks on the year. In their last game against Minnesota, the Spartans started Alessio Milivojevic, who completed 20 of 28 passes for 311 yards and a score. MSU may lean on Milivojevic again to move their offense forward.
Betting Trends
- Penn State is 2-7 against the spread this season.
- Michigan State is 5-4 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The over is 6-3 in the games for both of these teams so far this year.
Penn State vs Michigan State Model Projection
Score Projection: Penn State 27 – Michigan State 24
Win Probability: Penn State 65%, Michigan State 35%
Final Thoughts
I’m not sure how you justify laying points with either of these teams at this point in their seasons. I think that Penn State will win this contest on the road, as their performance against Indiana last week was encouraging. But I’m going to take the points with Michigan State as a home underdog in this contest, as they might show signs of life through the air after replacing Chiles last week.
