As far as name brands go in college football, it doesn’t get much bigger than Clemson vs Texas. And those two teams will face off in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, December 21 from Austin, TX. Both of these teams had very different results in their respective conference championship games, with Clemson riding high and Texas looking to bounce back in this game.
Texas comes into this contest as an 11-point favorite, while oddsmakers have set the total for this matchup at 52.5. After breaking down this game from all angles and using our statistical models to project the outcome, we give you our preview and our best bet for this first round matchup in the CFP.
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Clemson Looks to Build On Best Performance Of Their Season
Going into conference championship weekend, it was expected that Clemson would need to beat SMU to qualify for the College Football Playoff. They did just that, holding off a late comeback attempt from the Mustangs to win the ACC championship and make it to the playoff as its 12th seed despite the college football odds for that game having Clemson as slight underdogs. While the Tigers have to play the fifth seed in the first round and the fourth-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils if they win this contest, they will relish that challenge as they look for as second straight win with their backs against the wall.
Clemson got off to a great start in the ACC Championship Game against SMU, scoring 21 points in the first quarter and taking a two-touchdown lead twice in the opening quarter. They may not be able to rely on such an explosive start against a team as good as Texas, though. Instead, a strong finish will be key to this game for the Tigers, something they didn’t have against SMU.
This is Clemson’s first trip to the College Football Playoff since 2020. In their six previous trips to the playoff, they have won at least one game four times. Here, the Tigers will look to build on their history in this event in the first edition of the tournament that features 12 teams instead of the four teams that used to be featured.
Can Texas Respond to SEC Title Game Loss?
The Texas Longhorns lost in overtime in the SEC Championship Game, failing to stop the Georgia Bulldogs in the extra session to fall short in their first season as a member of the SEC. That loss dropped Texas out of the top-four seeds in the playoff, denying them a first-round bye. Instead, the Longhorns are seeded fifth and have a home game here, where they will look to bounce back from their loss to Georgia to move onto the second round of the CFP.
A huge story in that loss to Georgia was the quarterback uncertainty for Texas in overtime, where they used Arch Manning for one play before switching back to Quinn Ewers in a possession that ended with a costly field goal. While Manning’s presence has led to a spark with his legs at times, it is clear that Texas doesn’t fully trust Ewers right now, which could be a problem in the playoff.
Texas has lost twice this season, with both of those losses coming to Georgia. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in college football, so there is certainly no shame in going 0-2 against them. But the question going into this game is whether the Longhorns have a Georgia-specific problem or if there are larger concerns to address against elite teams across the board. We will get a clearer picture on that front once this game plays out.
Clemson vs Texas Pick & Prediction
Our best bet for Clemson vs Texas is for the Texas Longhorns to cover the spread as a heavy home favorite. Clemson deserves a ton of credit for getting a win that they needed in the ACC Championship Game. But beating SMU and beating Texas are two entirely different tasks and we expect the Tigers to struggle against a Texas team that is undefeated against everyone outside of Kirby Smart’s team.
