The Providence Friars and Wisconsin Badgers will meet on Thursday in a neutral-site contest from San Diego on Thanksgiving. Wisconsin is trying to bounce back from its first loss of the season, while Providence is searching for its third win in a row. Before tip-off from Southern California, I’ve analyzed this game from all angles and you will find my Wisconsin vs Providence prediction right here.
Our Wisconsin vs Providence Pick
- Pick: Providence +6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Providence Friars vs Wisconsin Badgers
- Date & Time: November 27, 2025, 5:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
- Providence has opened the season with an explosive scoring pace, averaging 93.2 points per game. But they have been torched on the defensive end of the floor by Colorado and Virginia Tech already this year. The Friars will need to dig in defensively to have a shot at getting a win on Thanksgiving Day.
- Jason Edwards leads the Friars with 19.3 points per game and continues to create efficient offense both on and off the ball.
- Wisconsin enters at 4–1 but is coming off a 98–70 setback against BYU in which their defense struggled to contain the scorers of the Cougars.
- Nick Boyd is averaging 19.2 points per game and remains Wisconsin’s primary offensive threat. He must spark the offense of the Badgers early to set the tone in this game.
- This game is a great measuring stick for both of these teams. They have both failed their only real tests of this season so far and this game gives them the chance to get their first win against a quality opponent for the year. Without a home crowd to rely on in this contest, we should see what both of these teams are made of.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Providence holds a 4–1 advantage in the all-time series.
- The Friars won the most recent meeting with a double-digit margin in 2023.
- Wisconsin has dropped three of its last four neutral-site games.
- Wisconsin is 2-3 against the spread going into this contest.
- Providence is 3-3 against the spread going into Thanksgiving Day.
- Four of Wisconsin’s five games have gone over their respective totals.
- The over has cashed in five of Providence’s first six games.
Providence vs Wisconsin Model Projection
- Score Projection: Providence 85 – Wisconsin 80
- Win Probability: Providence 56%, Wisconsin 44%
Final Thoughts
Providence’s scoring depth and fast tempo give them a strong opportunity to challenge Wisconsin from start to finish. The Friars rank inside of the top 25 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Badgers will attempt to slow the pace, but their recent defensive trouble against BYU raises doubts about their ability to control the Friars’ perimeter threats. I’ll take the points with the Friars in this matchup from San Diego.
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