Teams
Group overview
Group G is one of the most lopsided on paper of any group in the 2026 tournament. Belgium, ranked 9th in the world and priced at -255 to win the group, face opponents who collectively have never reached a World Cup knockout round. Egypt have qualified only four times in history and have never won a game at the finals. Iran have been to seven World Cups and lost out at the group stage every time. New Zealand are making only their third World Cup appearance and have never won a match in the competition. On paper, Belgium should cruise through. The more interesting question is what they carry into the knockout rounds.
The central narrative of Group G is a question about Belgium that has been building for a decade: a generation ranked number one in the world for years, capable of beating anyone on any given day, that never converted talent into silverware. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois arrive for what is almost certainly their last World Cup. Alongside them is a genuinely exciting new wave in Jeremy Doku, Dodi Lukebakio and Charles De Ketelaere. Manager Rudi Garcia has managed the transition well, winning qualification comfortably and producing a 5-2 demolition of the United States in March, but the defensive structure remains a legitimate concern heading into the knockout phase that will follow a straightforward group stage.
The genuine competitive interest in Group G lies entirely in the race for second place. Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah in what is almost certainly his final World Cup appearance, carry the individual quality and defensive organisation to earn that spot. Salah missed the March international window through injury and has confirmed he will leave Liverpool at the end of the season, adding an emotional weight to his campaign. Omar Marmoush at Manchester City provides the ideal complement. Iran, ranked 21st in the world, are the dark horse: tactically disciplined under Amir Ghalenoei, with Mehdi Taremi as a reliable focal point and a compact mid-block that will frustrate both Belgium and Egypt. The Iran vs Egypt match is effectively the group decider for second place. New Zealand, making their third World Cup appearance after 16 years away, are the clear underdogs but Chris Wood’s return from a long knee injury and a 4-1 win over Chile in March without their first-choice goalkeeper provide reasons for cautious optimism. Their only realistic route to the knockout round runs through beating Iran.
Qualified via
| Team | Confederation | Method | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | UEFA | Group winners | Won Group J, unbeaten |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | CAF | Group winners | 8W 2D 0L in Group D |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | AFC | Group winners | AFC Round 3 Group A winners |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | OFC | Group winners | Won all 5 OFC qualifying matches |
Advance probability (model)
| Team | Win group | Advance | Win WC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 69% | 96% | +3500 |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 18% | 77% | +10000 |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 9% | 68% | +10000 |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 4% | 30% | +100000 |
Matchday 1 — June 15
Matchday 2 — June 21
Matchday 3 — June 26 (simultaneous)
Odds via FanDuel. Lines subject to change.
Current standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best bets
Group G betting analysis
The group winner market is as clean as any in the tournament. Belgium at -255 implies roughly a 72 percent chance of topping the group, and nothing in the research contradicts that. Their attacking depth is genuinely formidable: De Bruyne, Doku, Lukebakio, Lukaku and Trossard give Rudi Garcia options that no other team in this group can match. What keeps the odds from being shorter is the familiar Belgian question around defensive compactness and the ageing of key veterans. Courtois at Real Madrid is expected to be fit, and his presence transforms the team’s ceiling, but the full-backs pushing high leave space that a transitional side like Iran is built to exploit.
The second-place market is the sharpest betting angle in Group G. Egypt at -300 to advance is not particularly generous, but the third-place wildcard route in the expanded format means even a 4-point haul from three games carries strong chances. The most interesting match on the fixture list is Egypt vs Iran on June 26, the simultaneous final-day game in Seattle that will almost certainly determine second place. Egypt’s 4-2-3-1 with Salah and Marmoush is better equipped for open, decisive football, while Iran will try to grind out the draw and advance on points. That matchup at +250 for a draw reflects genuine uncertainty and is worth consideration for those who have watched Iran’s recent results in tight games.
Player props
Odds correct at time of writing via FanDuel. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
