Group D Overview
In-Depth Group D Betting Guide
2026 FIFA World Cup
Group D
June 12 to 25, 2026 · Los Angeles · Vancouver · Seattle · Santa Clara
Teams
ATS.io expert verdicts
| Market | Top pick | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Group winner | United States | The USA already have a +3 goal difference after beating Paraguay 4-1. If Pulisic is cleared after his calf knock, Pochettino’s side are in control before facing Australia in Seattle. |
| Big mover | Australia | Australia’s 2-0 win over Turkiye changes the entire group. Patrick Beach should keep the gloves, Irankunda is now a major transition threat, and a point against the USA would put the Socceroos close to qualification. |
| Pressure spot | Turkiye vs Paraguay | Both sides lost their opener. Turkiye had enough possession and shot volume against Australia to remain dangerous, but Montella needs a sharper XI and likely has to start Kenan Yildiz. |
| Value prop watch | Balogun / Irankunda | Balogun scored twice in the opener and Australia will defend deep. Irankunda scored against Turkiye and now has the exact transition profile that can hurt the USA if they overcommit. |
The sharp edge
Projected standings after Matchday 1
| Team | Status | Path from here | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | In control | Beat Australia and qualification is all but secured before the Turkiye finale. | |
| Australia | Top-two track | A point against the USA would leave the Socceroos in a strong position before facing Paraguay. | |
| Turkiye | Must respond | The Paraguay match is close to must-win after the 2-0 defeat to Australia. | |
| Paraguay | Under pressure | Another defeat would leave Paraguay relying on a very narrow third-place route. |
Green = projected to advance. Amber = third-place wildcard route possible. Outlook updated after the first round of Group D games.
Group analysis
Group D no longer looks like the USA-Turkiye duel it appeared to be before the tournament. The United States opened with a 4-1 win over Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, scoring early through a Damian Bobadilla own goal before Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun and Giovanni Reyna helped turn the opener into a statement result. Balogun’s two-goal display gives the USA the central striker performance they needed, while Malik Tillman and Tyler Adams gave Pochettino much better balance in midfield than the March friendlies suggested.
The only concern for the USA is Pulisic. He was withdrawn at half-time after taking a kick to the calf, and Pochettino described it as a precaution rather than a major issue. Even so, the short turnaround to Australia in Seattle means his status has to be monitored. If Pulisic starts, the USA remain the clear group favourite. If he is rested, Giovanni Reyna or Brenden Aaronson gives Pochettino cover, but the ceiling drops slightly.
Australia produced the result that changed the group. Tony Popovic made a bold call by starting Patrick Beach in goal ahead of Mat Ryan, and Beach responded with eight saves in a 2-0 win over Turkiye. Nestory Irankunda scored the opener on the counter before Connor Metcalfe punished a late mistake from Ismail Yuksek. The Socceroos did not dominate the ball, but they defended with discipline and now have a clean sheet, three points and a real path to the knockout rounds.
Turkiye are now the biggest disappointment of Group D. Arda Guler had a lot of the ball and created enough moments to remain a major threat, but Montella’s side lacked the final action and Kenan Yildiz starting on the bench now looks like a mistake. The Paraguay match on June 19 is a pressure test. Paraguay, meanwhile, were punished badly by the USA after conceding early. Mauricio’s second-half goal keeps them off zero in the goals column, but the defensive performance was nowhere near the level expected from a Gustavo Alfaro side.
Matchday 1 results
Matchday 2
Matchday 3 (simultaneous kickoffs)
Remaining-game odds retained from the original odds snapshot. Refresh from your live odds feed before publishing if prices have moved.
Current standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Turkiye | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Best bets
Group D betting analysis
Group D has been completely repriced by the opening round. The USA are in the best position after beating Paraguay 4-1, and the performance was more convincing than the pre-tournament concern suggested. Balogun’s finishing, Adams’ midfield presence and Tillman’s movement gave Pochettino a balanced team structure. The main betting caveat is Pulisic’s calf. If he starts against Australia, the USA deserve to be clear favourites. If he is only fit for the bench, the Australia handicap and draw markets become more attractive.
Australia are the biggest market mover. They did not dominate Turkiye, but they did exactly what underdogs need to do at a World Cup: defend the box, ride a big goalkeeper performance, and take transition chances. Beach’s eight-save display is not something to blindly project forward, but Popovic now has a selection dilemma that probably is not a dilemma at all. Beach should keep his place.
Turkiye vs Paraguay is the elimination-pressure match. Turkiye have more individual quality, but the Australia defeat exposed a lack of penalty-box efficiency. Paraguay cannot afford to sit as deep as they did after going behind to the USA. If the first goal goes to Turkiye, Paraguay may have to open the game in a way that suits Guler and Yildiz.
Player props
Remaining match odds are retained from the original page snapshot. Player prop prices should be refreshed from the live odds feed before publishing. Please gamble responsibly.
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