Projected standings

Green = projected automatic qualifier. Amber = third-place wildcard route. Outlook labels are editorial projections, not listed sportsbook probabilities.

Group analysis

Group B is much tighter after Matchday 1 than the pre-tournament market expected. Canada and Bosnia drew 1-1 in Toronto, with Jovo Lukic putting Bosnia ahead from a set-piece routine before Cyle Larin came off the bench to rescue Canada’s first-ever World Cup point. Qatar then stunned Switzerland with a stoppage-time equaliser in Santa Clara, cancelling out Breel Embolo’s first-half penalty and leaving all four teams level on 1 point.

Switzerland still deserve to be treated as the most reliable side in the group. They created enough chances to beat Qatar comfortably, but their inability to convert 26 attempts has to be taken seriously. Murat Yakin’s side now face Bosnia in Los Angeles knowing a draw would leave the group awkward, while a win would put them back in control before the Vancouver decider against Canada.

Canada’s draw was not a disaster, but it does change the urgency around the Qatar game. Jesse Marsch’s side produced the better late chances against Bosnia and the Larin equaliser gives him a strong case to start alongside Jonathan David in Vancouver. Alphonso Davies was not ready to start the opener after his hamstring issue, so his fitness remains the biggest lineup variable for the co-hosts.

Bosnia’s point was valuable because it came away from home against a host nation. Their set-piece threat was clear, with Sead Kolasinac flicking on the corner that led to Lukic’s opener, but the late pressure they absorbed also underlined why the Switzerland match is a different test. Qatar’s point was the biggest swing of the group. Mahmoud Abunada’s performance in goal and Boualem Khoukhi’s late header have turned the Canada match into a genuine opportunity rather than a damage-limitation spot.