Como travel to Marassi on Sunday chasing a European spot and arrive as clear favorites at around -155. . There is a considerable gap in quality between the two sides, but Marassi is a tough venue and Genoa have picked […]
Inter can clinch the Serie A title on Sunday at Torino, and the market has priced the occasion in at -275. My model agrees with Inter’s favorites tag, but the value isn’t on the moneyline. It’s on the total. Lautaro […]
Milan take on Juventus on Sunday in a match with serious Champions League implications. The visitors are the slight road favorite, and come into this high-profile match in excellent form having won 4 of their last 5. The best bet […]
Napoli are priced like a routine home favorite, but the sharper read is on tempo rather than side: my model makes Napoli 61% to win, yet only 2.32 total goals, which creates value against a total market still shaded toward […]
Chelsea are five league games without a goal, just sacked their manager, and head to Wembley with three first-choice attackers injured or doubtful. Leeds have beaten them in the league already this season and carry a materially better xG trend […]
City’s defensive injuries and Southampton’s legitimate xG profile make the under the angle here, not fading the result. My model has this 2-0 City. The market is pricing a rout. Prediction: Manchester City win | Best Bet: Manchester City win […]
United are a narrow home favorite here, but the underlying numbers don’t fully support that price. Their npxG over the last five matches sits at 1.28, well below their headline xG of 1.62, with the gap explained by penalties and […]
The market is shading Arsenal correctly on the moneyline, but it’s still light on the probability that this turns into a multi-goal home win. Newcastle arrive with Joelinton suspended, Gordon a major doubt, and an away npxG profile that says […]
Tottenham led Brighton 2-1 until the 90th minute last weekend, put up 13 shots and six on target, and lost the draw to a Danso error in stoppage time. They showed a clear understanding of De Zerbi’s vision and looked […]
Liverpool host Crystal Palace at Anfield on Saturday needing another win to stay ahead in the race for the Champions League, while Glasner’s side arrive off the back of a Conference League semi-final qualification and four unbeaten in the league. […]