The 23rd edition of the FIFA World Cup gets underway on June 11 when co-host Mexico face South Africa in the tournament opener.
With the expanded field, three host nations, and a new Round of 32, this is the most complex betting market in the event’s history. Here is how the top 16 contenders stack up before a ball is kicked.
2026 FIFA World Cup Power Rankings Snapshot
| # | Team | To win |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain Contender Euro 2024 champions. Yamal + Williams. Best squad depth in the field. | +450 |
| 2 | England Contender Tuchel changes the ceiling. Kane’s last dance. Stacked squad, softest draw. | +550 |
| 3 | France Contender Mbappé fit and firing again. Beat Brazil 2-1 in March tune-up. Tough draw is the caveat. | +750 |
| 4 | Brazil Outsider Ancelotti in charge. Rodrygo ACL a major blow. Vinicius must carry the load. | +800 |
| 5 | Argentina Outsider Defending champions. Messi turns 39 in June. Romero, Mac Allister, Álvarez at peak powers. | +800 |
| 6 | Portugal Outsider Nations League winners. Ronaldo’s farewell tour. Bruno + Vitinha the real engine. | +1100 |
| 7 | Germany Outsider Nagelsmann unlocked something real. Havertz + Musiala. Home continent advantage. | +1200 |
| 8 | Netherlands Fringe Van Dijk-led defence is elite. Depay injury concern. Koeman’s system needs Frenkie fit. | +2000 |
| 9 | Norway Fringe Haaland alone justifies the price. Ødegaard injury the big watch. First WC since 1998. | +2800 |
| 10 | Belgium Fringe De Bruyne’s last chance. Courtois world-class still. Lukaku + Doku give real goal threat. | +4000 |
| 11 | Colombia Longshot Copa América runners-up 2024. James Rodríguez still pulling strings. Díaz in elite form. | +4000 |
| 12 | Uruguay Longshot Valverde is a difference-maker. Núñez dangerous up top. Defence the concern at altitude. | +6500 |
| 13 | USA Longshot Host nation energy. Pulisic leads the line. Pochettino’s structure matters more than the hype. | +6500 |
| 14 | Morocco Longshot 2022 semi-finalists. Hakimi back. Ounahi injury threatens their midfield creativity. | +6000 |
| 15 | Japan Longshot Best Asian side in the field. Endo ankle concern. Organised, dangerous, tactically elite. | +9000 |
| 16 | Ecuador Longshot Valencia led CONMEBOL qualifying. Piero Hincapié a standout. Group E is very winnable. | +8000 |
- Spain (+450)
The market has Spain as favorites and the case is difficult to argue with. The reigning European champions arrive at this tournament with the youngest and most cohesive squad in the field.
Lamine Yamal, still only 18, and Nico Williams tormented every full-back they faced at Euro 2024. That was as a pair of teenagers. What they will do now, with another year of club football and international experience behind them, is one of the most compelling storylines of the summer.
The midfield is the finest structural unit at the tournament. Rodri returning to his pre-knee injury form is central to the outlook. Without him Spain are very good; with him they are a tier above the rest. Zubimendi, Pedri, and Fabián Ruiz provide coverage at every level of the pitch.
The concern, as always with Spanish sides, is whether they carry a finisher capable of winning a knockout game in extra time when the opposition has parked the bus.
- England (+550)
Sixty years of hurt ends here, or at least that is what the market is beginning to price in. Thomas Tuchel’s appointment has fundamentally changed the outlook for England.
Where Gareth Southgate’s side were cautious and tactically reactive, Tuchel has brought a press-heavy, positionally aggressive identity that suits this squad’s talent level far better.
Harry Kane finally has a manager who will build a system around him rather than despite him. Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka give England one of the most technically gifted forward units in the tournament. The midfield spine of Rice and Anderson is a strong one.
The draw is kind too. Group L (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) represents the softest path of any top-five favorite. If Tuchel can get England to the quarter-finals playing at full intensity, they will fancy themselves against anyone.
The +550 price captures both the genuine quality and the historical caution the market always applies to England. It is the second-best outright bet on the board.
- France (+750)
The knee is fine. Kylian Mbappé said so on Monday. He proved it on Thursday, starting and scoring against Brazil at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough as France won 2-1 in a tournament dress rehearsal on the very pitch where they will play their final group game this summer.
After weeks of speculation about wrong-leg scans and misdiagnosis, the only thing anyone needs to know is that he came off in the 65th minute to protect his minutes, as France comfortably beat Brazil.
The supporting cast around Mbappé has never been stronger. Hugo Ekitike, Liverpool‘s leading scorer this season, reigning Ballon D’Or winner Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise are just three of a cavalcade of attacking talent at Didier Deschamps disposal.
Mike Maignan in goal and a settled back four containing William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano gives them genuine title credentials.
The caveat is the draw. Group I contains Norway, and any slip-up could put them on a collision course with Brazil in the Round of 32. A tough road to the final is baked in.
+750 reflects that correctly. France are not the best bet at this price given the path, but they are absolutely a team capable of winning the whole thing.
- Brazil (+800)
Carlo Ancelotti was always going to be good for Brazil. A manager of his calibre, with his tournament pedigree, brings a calm structure that Brazil’s stellar individual talent has historically lacked at World Cups. The Seleção have not won this trophy since 2002. Ancelotti’s arrival feels like the most significant change in the national setup in a generation.
The problem is Rodrygo. The Real Madrid forward tore his ACL and will miss the entire tournament. That is a devastating blow for a squad that had genuine depth in wide areas.
Vinicius Júnior now carries an enormous burden, and while he is capable of producing match-winning moments, Brazil’s attacking options become noticeably thinner once you move past him and Barcelona’s Raphinha.
Group C is a soft draw though, and Brazil at +800 remains a credible price for a side managed by one of the game’s elite coaches.
- Argentina (+800)
No nation has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. The market knows this. Argentina at +800 reflects both their genuine quality and the structural difficulty of repeating as champions in the expanded 48-team format.
Lionel Messi turns 39 during the tournament. That is the headline, and it is the legitimate central concern for Argentina backers. Ángel Di María has already retired from international football.
The supporting cast of Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez should be at the peak of their collective powers in June, though Romero and Mac Allister’s league form has been poor this season.
Juan Foyth’s Achilles rupture is the only significant squad casualty so far, and it is a manageable one given Argentina’s defensive depth. Group J (Austria, Algeria, Jordan) is straightforward.
Argentina at +800 looks like fair value for a team that is well-organised, tournament-hardened, and still led by the greatest player in the history of the game, even at 38.
- Portugal (+1100)
Portugal are drawing heavy sportsbook liability. BetMGM have noted they are their second-largest exposure, and it is easy to understand why.
The Nations League trophy win cemented Roberto Martínez’s belief in a squad that has progressively reduced its reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo without triggering an identity crisis.
Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha run the midfield with an authority that is increasingly independent of what Ronaldo does or does not contribute. Pedro Neto and Rafael Leão on the flanks carry genuine Champions League-level quality. This is a team capable of reaching a final on its own merit, not just on Ronaldo’s legacy.
Group K is among the more favorable draws in the top eight of the market. Portugal reaching the semi-finals would surprise very few people.
At +1100, they offer better tournament value than either Brazil or Argentina at +800. The public is betting with their heart on Ronaldo’s last World Cup. The sharp play might be to follow.
- Germany (+1200)
The last two World Cups humiliated Germany. Group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022 made them the tournament’s most cautionary tale.
Julian Nagelsmann has spent the intervening period rebuilding something that finally looks like a functional international side rather than a collection of expensive individuals without a system.
Jamal Musiala is the most exciting young midfielder in world football on his best days. Kai Havertz, often unfairly maligned at club level, has performed consistently for Germany on the international stage.
The goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen remains a fitness concern after his season-long hamstring issues, but the outfield depth is the strongest it has been since 2014.
The Germans should win Group E comfortably.
Germany at +1200 is not the headline bet on the board, but a quarter-final or semi-final run is very much within the squad’s ceiling, and the market may still be punishing them more than their current form warrants.
- Netherlands (+2000)
Netherlands reached the semi-finals of Euro 2024 and the quarter-finals in Qatar. Ronald Koeman has built a squad with exceptional Premier League quality at its spine.
Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven as the central defensive partnership is one of the best at the tournament, and Jerémie Frimpong and Denzel Dumfries give them width and directness that few sides can match.
The concern is Memphis Depay, who faces a fitness race to make the tournament at all after a serious injury suffered late in the club season.
Frenkie de Jong’s overall availability and form remains the deeper structural question. Without him at his best in the middle, the Netherlands struggle to control games against elite opposition despite the presence of the talented Tijjani Reijnders.
Group F is not the easiest group, but the Dutch are top-seeded for a reason.
At +2000, Netherlands represent genuine each-way value in a market where the top five absorb most of the public money.
- Norway (+2800)
This is their first World Cup since 1998. Erling Haaland has never played in one before. That combination of hunger, occasion, and the most lethal striker on the planet makes Norway at +2800, a genuine speculative bet.
Norway qualified with ease, scoring 37 goals and conceding just 5 across eight qualifying matches. The famous 4-1 destruction of Italy at the San Siro was the standout result of any European qualifying campaign.
Haaland simply needs to stay fit and Norway are capable of beating anyone in a knockout game. However, Group I with France and Senegal is the group of death of this tournament, and Norway face a tough task to get to the knockout rounds.
However, Norway at +2800 is a long shot supported not only by the quality of their squad, but also by their emphatic dismissal of high-level opponents in qualification.
- Belgium (+4000)
This is not the golden generation. However, the previous Belgium squad carried the weight of expectation through four consecutive tournaments without winning anything.
This Belgium side, managed by Rudi Garcia, enters with far lower public profile but quality throughout the squad.
Thibaut Courtois is arguably the best goalkeeper at the tournament. Romelu Lukaku and Jeremy Doku provide the forward combination that can hurt anyone. The Aston Villa double pivot of Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana gives Garcia the engine room he needs.
The issue is the fitness of almost every one of those players . All have had injury interruptions this season except Courtois. A fully fit Belgium at +4000 is generous.
A Belgium missing two or three of those names at any stage of the tournament reverts to the mean very quickly. A speculative bet for the brave, best placed once squad fitness is clearer in May.
- Colombia (+4000)
Colombia were Copa América runners-up in 2024 and ran through CONMEBOL qualifying in impressive fashion. James Rodríguez, written off several times, continues to pull the strings effectively at international level. Luis Díaz in his Bayern form is as dangerous a wide forward as any in the competition.
Group K alongside Portugal is the challenge. Colombia are unlikely to top that group, which means a second-place finish puts them on a harder side of the bracket from the Round of 32 onwards.
The talent is there for a quarter-final run at a minimum. At +4000, they offer reasonable longshot value in a CONMEBOL market that will be dominated by Argentina and Brazil in terms of public attention.
- Uruguay (+6500)
There is a version of this Uruguay side that gets to a quarter-final and beats a fancied team in a grinding 1-0 knockout game. That is who they are. Fede Valverde is the engine. A box-to-box midfielder operating at the absolute elite level for Real Madrid, with the capacity to win games by himself on the international stage.
Darwin Núñez offers a different kind of forward threat to what Uruguay have historically deployed. Marcelo Bielsa will make sure that the squad is pressing high with intent and hunger.
Group H is the obstacle. Spain are heavy favorites to win it. A second-place finish behind La Roja, though, is achievable, and from there Uruguay’s tournament pedigree in knockout football is as strong as almost anyone in the field.
At +6500, they are a lively underdog bet for bettors who like value and Uruguayan grit.
- USA (+6500)
The host nation factor has proven to hold sway and it is priced into the +6500 market. Mauricio Pochettino has given the USMNT a structure that previous setups lacked, and this is arguably the most talented American squad to appear at the World Cup.
Christian Pulisic is the talisman and must play at his best for a meaningful run to materialize. The squad has genuine quality throughout.
Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams when fit, Folarin Balogun and Brenden Aaronson are a strong midfield, but the depth is not yet at the level where rotation leaves quality unchanged.
Group D remains incomplete pending the final playoffs, so the precise difficulty of the path is still unknown.
The USA making the quarter-finals on home soil is not a fantasy. Winning the tournament from +6500 is a much longer ask.
- Morocco (+6000)
The 2022 semi-finalists carry a permanent credibility premium in the market, and it is mostly deserved. Achraf Hakimi back from his long-term injury gives Morocco an elite option at right-back, and the defensive solidity that underpinned the Qatar run remains the core of Walid Regragui’s setup.
The African Champions could surprise the uninformed, and they should be favored to finish second behind Brazil at a minimum.
This would put them in the knockout rounds for a potential deep run. The +6000 price is slightly overlong for a 2022 semi-finalist with this squad. There is value here.
- Japan (+9000)
The best side from outside Europe and South America. Japan were the first team to qualify for 2026, and the manner of their clinical qualification highlighted the danger they can pose to those who underestimate them.
The squad now features a generation of players who are regulars at Europe’s biggest clubs rather than stars of a domestic league the rest of the world does not watch.
Wataru Endo’s ankle injury is a concern. The Liverpool midfielder is going to take time to recover and may not be fully fit for the group stage. Takumi Minamino is also an ACL doubt. Those are two key squad members whose absence would hurt depth significantly.
The upside case remains compelling: in Group F alongside Netherlands and Tunisia, a second-place finish is genuinely achievable, which would put Japan into the Round of 32 where their tournament record shows they can compete with anyone.
At +9000, this is strictly a small speculative bet built on the scenario where they emerge from the group and then catch a vulnerable opponent in the knockouts. Not impossible. Japan have done it before.
- Ecuador (+8000)
Ecuador are the most overlooked team in these rankings and possibly the best value on the board at their current price.
Enner Valencia led their CONMEBOL qualifying campaign, and he still has the tournament experience and leadership that Ecuador rely on at the business end of tournaments. Piero Hincapié at centre-back, still only 23, has developed into a top Premier League defender. Moisés Caicedo continues to grow into one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.
Group E is demanding but not impossible. Ecuador finishing second behind Germany is very much within range.
From there, the expanded format means a Round of 32 appearance, at which point their physical intensity and direct play can cause problems for more technically polished but less physically robust opposition.
Ecuador at +8000 is the best underdog value in these rankings. They will not win the World Cup, but they are more likely than the market implies to be involved in the second week of the knockout stage.
Odds sourced from DraftKings and market aggregators as of March 27, 2026, and subject to change. Always gamble responsibly.
