2026 FIFA World Cup · Group Preview
Group F Odds, Predictions & Best Bets
Netherlands · Japan · Sweden · Tunisia | Dallas · Houston · Monterrey · Kansas City · June 14 – 25, 2026
Group overview
Group F is now a three-team race at the top after Matchday 2. Netherlands recovered from their opening 2-2 draw with Japan by smashing Sweden 5-1 in Houston, while Japan followed that draw with a 4-0 win over Tunisia in Monterrey. Netherlands and Japan both have four points and a +4 goal difference, with the Dutch ahead on goals scored. Sweden sit third on three points and now need to beat Japan on the final day to guarantee automatic qualification.
Netherlands produced the response Ronald Koeman needed. Brian Brobbey started ahead of Memphis Depay and scored twice in the opening 17 minutes, Cody Gakpo added two more after the break, and Crysencio Summerville came off the bench to score and create problems late. That performance restored the Dutch as the team most likely to top the group, but the race with Japan may still come down to goal difference and goals scored.
Japan are in a strong position despite injuries to Wataru Endo, Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino. Ayase Ueda scored twice against Tunisia, with Daichi Kamada and Junya Ito also on target. Hajime Moriyasu’s side only need a draw against Sweden to finish in the top two, while a win keeps them in the hunt for first if Netherlands slip or fail to run up the score against Tunisia.
Sweden have experienced both extremes of tournament football: a 5-1 win over Tunisia followed by a 5-1 defeat to Netherlands. The attacking quality is still there through Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga, but Graham Potter now has to fix the defensive issues quickly. Tunisia are eliminated after conceding nine goals in two games, and their final match against Netherlands is about pride rather than qualification.
Post-Matchday 2 picture
Final-day picture: Netherlands and Japan are level on four points and +4 goal difference. Netherlands lead the group on goals scored. Sweden must beat Japan to secure automatic qualification, while Tunisia are already eliminated.
Key storylines
The Dutch reset. Brobbey starting ahead of Depay changed the shape of the attack, and Gakpo’s two-goal second half gave Netherlands the ruthless edge they lacked against Japan. Koeman can still rotate, but the top-spot race means he has every reason to chase goals against Tunisia.
Japan’s injury depth passed the test. Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 without Kubo, Endo, Mitoma or Minamino. Kamada and Ito stepped into bigger roles, while Ueda’s double gives Moriyasu a clear striker answer before the Sweden decider.
Sweden’s defensive correction. Potter’s side still have enough attacking talent to beat Japan, but the Netherlands loss exposed major issues defending wide areas and second balls. If Sweden chase the game too early in Dallas, Japan’s counter-press can punish them.
Tunisia’s collapse. A team that entered with an elite qualifying defensive record has conceded nine goals in two games. Herve Renard has asked for pride and professionalism in the final match, but Netherlands have every incentive to attack.
Current standings
Top 2 teams per group qualify automatically for the Round of 32. The 8 best third-place teams across all 12 groups also advance. Tiebreakers in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head, fair play, drawing of lots.
Best bets
Best value
Japan draw no bet vs Sweden
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Japan have the cleaner tactical setup and only need a draw to secure a top-two finish. Sweden have the higher individual striker ceiling, but the 5-1 loss to Netherlands exposed the defensive structure. Japan should be able to punish Sweden if Potter’s side chase the game too early.
Match pick
Netherlands -2.5 vs Tunisia
+105
Netherlands need goals to protect top spot from Japan, while Tunisia have already conceded nine in two games and are eliminated. Brobbey, Gakpo and Summerville changed the Dutch attack against Sweden, and Koeman has little reason to settle for a narrow win.
Scenario angle
Sweden must win vs Japan
+340
This is the high-variance side of the group. Sweden’s defensive floor is worrying, but Isak, Gyokeres and Elanga give them enough firepower to turn the Japan match into chaos. A draw is not enough for automatic qualification, so Potter has to be proactive.
Group F betting analysis
The group winner race is essentially a Netherlands vs Japan goal-difference fight. Both teams have four points and a +4 goal difference, but Netherlands lead on goals scored after the 5-1 Sweden win. That makes the Tunisia match more important than a simple win-and-move-on spot. The Dutch will want a margin, especially if Japan are leading Sweden in Dallas.
Japan are in the cleaner qualification position against Sweden because a draw is enough for automatic progression. The injury list is still a concern, especially with Kubo and Endo unavailable, but the 4-0 Tunisia win showed the system can still create goals through Kamada, Ito and Ueda. Sweden’s route is simple: win or sweat the third-place table.
Tunisia are eliminated, which changes the tone of their Netherlands game. Herve Renard has asked for dignity and a response, but this is a brutal matchup against a Dutch side chasing first place. The best betting use of Tunisia now is as a fade in handicap and goals markets rather than any qualification angle.
Player props
CG
Cody Gakpo anytime scorer
Tunisia vs Netherlands
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AU
Ayase Ueda anytime scorer
Japan vs Sweden
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VG
Viktor Gyokeres 2+ shots on target
Japan vs Sweden
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Final-match odds reflect current public sportsbook snapshots where available. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
🇳🇱Netherlands
Ronald Koeman · 4-3-3
4 pts, +4 GD. Top on goals scored
Top race
Team overview
Netherlands are back on top of Group F after the 5-1 win over Sweden. The draw with Japan raised tactical questions, but Koeman’s response was emphatic: Brian Brobbey started ahead of Memphis Depay, scored twice early and gave the front line a more direct reference point. Cody Gakpo then scored twice after the break, while Crysencio Summerville added late speed and end product from the bench. The Dutch are level with Japan on points and goal difference, but they lead the group on goals scored. That makes the Tunisia finale a margin game as much as a result game. Depay remains a managed fitness and role question, and Brobbey is also being monitored, but Netherlands have shown enough attacking depth to chase the top spot without forcing either into unnecessary minutes.
Probable XI: 4-3-3
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Brobbey gave Netherlands the penalty-box presence they lacked in the opener and immediately rewarded Koeman’s selection call with two goals
Gakpo is now one of the hottest players in the group and gives Netherlands a reliable scoring threat from the left channel
The Dutch control the top-spot race because they lead Japan on goals scored and now face already-eliminated Tunisia
Weaknesses
The Japan draw still showed that Netherlands can lose control late when Koeman manages the game too cautiously
Depay has yet to start and remains a fitness/role question, while Brobbey is being monitored after carrying the central-forward load against Sweden
If Japan score early against Sweden, Netherlands may need to keep chasing goals deep into a game they would otherwise prefer to manage
Model projection
Projected finish
1st or 2nd
🇯🇵Japan
Hajime Moriyasu · 3-4-2-1
4 pts, +4 GD. Draw enough vs Sweden
Draw OK
Team overview
Japan are one result away from the knockouts after following their 2-2 comeback draw against Netherlands with a 4-0 win over Tunisia. The performance mattered because it came without several headline players: Takefusa Kubo, Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino have all been injury absences. Moriyasu adjusted by using Daichi Kamada higher, and the move worked. Kamada scored early, Junya Ito added pace and directness, and Ayase Ueda scored twice to make himself the clear first-choice striker. Japan only need a draw against Sweden to secure a top-two finish, but a win could still take them above Netherlands if the Dutch do not build a bigger margin against Tunisia.
Probable XI: 3-4-2-1
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Ueda’s double against Tunisia gives Japan a proper finishing focal point before the decisive Sweden match
Kamada and Ito stepped up without Kubo and Endo, proving Japan’s system can survive high-profile absences
A draw is enough for top two, which lets Japan manage risk and punish Sweden if Potter’s side overcommit
Weaknesses
The injury list remains significant, with Kubo, Endo, Mitoma and Minamino all absent from the current picture
Japan are level with Netherlands on goal difference but trail on goals scored, so winning the group may require a bigger final-day margin
Sweden’s forward line is the most physically dangerous matchup Japan have faced in the group so far
Model projection
🇸🇪Sweden
Graham Potter · 5-3-2 / 3-5-2
3 pts. Must beat Japan for top two
Must win
Team overview
Sweden’s tournament has swung wildly. The 5-1 opening win over Tunisia made them look like a live group-winner contender, but the 5-1 defeat to Netherlands reset the picture completely. Graham Potter’s side were punished early by Brobbey and then torn open by Gakpo and Summerville after the break. Anthony Elanga’s goal at least showed there is still direct attacking threat, but Sweden now need to beat Japan to secure automatic qualification. A draw would leave them on four points and probably in the third-place conversation, but the safest path is simple: win in Dallas.
Probable XI: 5-3-2 / 3-5-2
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Isak, Gyokeres and Elanga still give Sweden enough individual quality to beat Japan if the game opens up
Because Sweden need to win, the tactical brief is clear: attack Japan rather than trying to manage a draw that does not help enough
Their Tunisia performance showed the upside when the front line gets early service and runners arrive from midfield
Weaknesses
The Netherlands result exposed Sweden’s defensive spacing, particularly in wide areas and when the first ball was not dealt with
Japan only need a draw, so Sweden may have to chase the game against one of the best counter-pressing teams in the tournament
A draw probably leaves Sweden dependent on the third-place table rather than controlling their own path
Model projection
🇹🇳Tunisia
Herve Renard · 4-3-3 / 3-5-2
Eliminated after two defeats
Eliminated
Team overview
Tunisia are eliminated after two heavy defeats. The contrast with qualifying is brutal: a team that reached the tournament without conceding in CAF qualifying has allowed nine goals in two World Cup matches, losing 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan. Herve Renard has stepped into a difficult situation and has called for pride and dignity in the final match against Netherlands. There is no qualification path left, but the performance still matters for the squad and for a federation that expected defensive resilience to travel into the tournament. Against a Dutch side chasing top spot and goals, Tunisia’s final assignment is probably the hardest possible recovery game.
Probable XI: 4-3-3
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Renard should at least bring structure and emotional clarity for a final game that is now about professional pride
Skhiri, Mejbri and Talbi remain credible individual pieces even if the team structure has collapsed
With no qualification pressure, Tunisia can play a more liberated final match than the first two performances suggested
Weaknesses
Nine goals conceded in two games is a catastrophic reversal from their qualifying identity
The attack has not produced enough pressure to keep opponents honest, leaving the defence under constant strain
Netherlands need goals for top spot, making this the worst possible matchup for a team low on confidence
Model projection
