2026 FIFA World Cup
Group E Odds, Predictions & Best Bets
June 14 to 25, 2026 · Houston · Philadelphia · Toronto · Kansas City · New York / New Jersey
Teams
🇩🇪Germany
FIFA #10
group win
-320
🇪🇨Ecuador
FIFA #23
group win
+1600
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
FIFA #34
group win
+375
🇨🇼Curacao
FIFA #82
group win
+10000
Overview
Sharp Sheet
Fixtures
Standings
Best bets
Germany
Expert insight: Germany made the biggest statement of any Group E side on Matchday 1, but Ivory Coast’s late win over Ecuador means the second-place race has already tilted sharply toward Les Elephants.
ATS.io expert verdicts
The sharp edge
The pre-tournament case for Ecuador has taken a major hit. Their defensive structure still looked strong for long stretches against Ivory Coast, but losing the head-to-head that was expected to decide second place means the market has to be re-priced around game state. Ivory Coast can now qualify with a draw against Germany and a win over Curacao, while Ecuador probably need to beat Curacao by multiple goals and then take something from Germany. That makes Germany the clear group-winner anchor and Ivory Coast the team whose advance position improved most after Matchday 1.
Key fixture: Germany vs Ivory Coast (June 20, Toronto) is now the match that decides whether Group E becomes a Germany procession or a live fight for first place
Projected standings
Green = projected top-two path. Amber = third-place wildcard route. Group-winner prices use current market-implied odds; remaining match odds below use the original odds snapshot.
Group analysis
Group E changed dramatically on Matchday 1. Germany did exactly what an elite team should do against the group’s debutants, beating Curacao 7-1 in Houston and building a goal-difference advantage that may matter if the top two teams finish level on points. The return of Manuel Neuer in goal, Musiala starting, and goals spread across the front line made this feel like a serious opening statement rather than a routine win.
Ivory Coast produced the more important result from a qualification perspective. The 1-0 win over Ecuador in Philadelphia, sealed by Amad Diallo in the 90th minute, gives Les Elephants three points from the game that was expected to decide who would join Germany in the knockouts. It also changes the pressure dynamic. Ivory Coast can now approach Germany with freedom, while Ecuador must beat Curacao and probably repair goal difference before facing Germany on Matchday 3.
Ecuador are not finished, but their margin for error has disappeared. They still have the defensive base to frustrate Germany and enough quality to beat Curacao, but the loss to Ivory Coast means the pre-tournament second-place case is no longer clean. Moises Caicedo played the full opener, Ecuador hit the woodwork, and the performance was not a collapse. It was still a damaging result because the schedule now forces them into chase mode.
Curacao’s tournament began with a heavy defeat, but their first World Cup goal through Livano Comenencia was a historic moment. The problem is the table. A -6 goal difference after one game makes the third-place wildcard route extremely difficult unless they produce a shock result against Ecuador or Ivory Coast. The next match against Ecuador is now about survival as much as pride.
Matchday 1 — June 14
NRG Stadium, Houston
Result GER 7-1 CUW
Key note Germany +6 GD
Curacao goal Comenencia
Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador
FT
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Result CIV 1-0 ECU
Goal Amad Diallo 90′
Clean sheet Ivory Coast
Matchday 2 — June 20
Germany vs Ivory Coast
4:00 PM ET
BMO Field, Toronto
GER -200
Draw +300
CIV +550
Ecuador vs Curacao
8:00 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
ECU -600
Draw +650
CUW +1400
Matchday 3 — June 25 (simultaneous)
Ecuador vs Germany
4:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
ECU +350
Draw +250
GER -155
Curacao vs Ivory Coast
4:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
CUW +900
Draw +500
CIV -280
Remaining match odds use the original FanDuel snapshot. Lines subject to change.
Current standings
Top 2 teams per group qualify automatically for the Round of 32. The 8 best third-place teams across all 12 groups also advance. Tiebreakers in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head, fair play, drawing of lots.
Best bets
Best value
Ivory Coast to advance from group
-500
The price was already short before the opener, but the 1-0 win over Ecuador gives Ivory Coast the cleanest path behind Germany. A point against Germany or a win over Curacao may be enough to send Les Elephants into the knockouts for the first time.
Match pick
Germany vs Ivory Coast draw
+300
Germany have the stronger squad and the goal-difference cushion, while Ivory Coast can approach the match with freedom after beating Ecuador. The draw is the remaining-game price that best captures the changed group state.
Recovery spot
Ecuador to beat Curacao
-600
Ecuador cannot afford another slip. Their defensive base should still be enough to control Curacao, but the angle is no longer just winning. Goal difference matters after Germany’s 7-1 opener and Ecuador’s late defeat.
Group E betting analysis
The Group E winner market now belongs to Germany. The pre-tournament concern was whether their recent World Cup group-stage scars might reappear, but a 7-1 win over Curacao has given Nagelsmann’s side immediate control of the table and a six-goal advantage over Ivory Coast. That does not guarantee first place, but it gives Germany the safety net favourites need in a three-match group.
Ivory Coast are the major post-Matchday 1 riser. The win over Ecuador does not just add three points; it flips the psychological pressure. Ecuador must now beat Curacao and probably do so with a margin, while Ivory Coast can make the Germany game awkward without needing to chase it. Amad Diallo’s goal also creates a real selection question for Emerse Fae after he began the opener on the bench.
Ecuador’s advance case is still alive because the expanded format gives third-place teams a route to the Round of 32. But they have lost the head-to-head that mattered most. The Matchday 2 price against Curacao is short for a reason, yet the more important betting question is margin. If Ecuador win narrowly, they may still need a result against Germany.
Player props
KH
Kai Havertz anytime scorer
Germany vs Ivory Coast
TBD
AD
Amad Diallo anytime scorer
Curacao vs Ivory Coast
TBD
EV
Enner Valencia anytime scorer
Ecuador vs Curacao
TBD
Remaining match odds use the original FanDuel snapshot. Player-prop prices should be refreshed from your live odds feed before publishing. Please gamble responsibly.
🇩🇪Germany
Julian Nagelsmann · 4-2-3-1
Opened with 7-1 win over Curacao
-320 group win
Team overview
Germany could not have asked for a better start. The 7-1 win over Curacao gave Julian Nagelsmann’s side three points, a six-goal cushion, and a broad spread of attacking involvement before the more difficult fixtures against Ivory Coast and Ecuador. Manuel Neuer returned in goal, Musiala started, Havertz scored twice, and the midfield looked far more balanced with Pavlovic and Nmecha. The next match against Ivory Coast is now the real test. A win in Toronto would likely settle the group before Matchday 3; a draw would still leave Germany in control because of goal difference.
Probable XI vs Ivory Coast: 4-2-3-1
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
The opener showed Germany’s attacking depth. Havertz, Musiala, Nmecha, Schlotterbeck, Brown and Undav all contributed to the scoring load.
Neuer’s return gives the back line a familiar organiser behind it, while Kimmich’s set-piece delivery remains a major weapon.
The +6 goal difference means Germany can approach Ivory Coast with less pressure than their opponent.
Weaknesses
Curacao still scored, so the transition-defence questions are not completely erased.
Ivory Coast have more pace and physicality than Curacao and will stress the full-back zones much more aggressively.
Germany’s recent World Cup history means one big opener should not be treated as proof the group-stage issue is solved.
Model projection
🇪🇨Ecuador
Sebastian Beccacece · 3-4-3 / 4-4-2
Lost opener 1-0 vs Ivory Coast
+1600 group win
Team overview
Ecuador’s tournament is now in chase mode. The 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast was not a collapse, but it was the worst possible result in the match that was expected to decide second place. Ecuador hit the woodwork and still showed the defensive structure that made them so hard to beat in qualifying, but they now need a convincing response against Curacao. Beccacece used a back-three structure in the opener, with Pacho, Hincapie and Ordonez protecting Galindez and Caicedo playing the full match in midfield. The attacking question remains the same: Ecuador need more end product around Enner Valencia.
Probable XI vs Curacao: 3-4-3
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
The back three of Ordonez, Pacho and Hincapie remains one of the strongest defensive structures in the group.
Caicedo played the full opener and remains the player who controls Ecuador’s defensive balance and transition speed.
Curacao’s heavy opening defeat gives Ecuador a clear opportunity to repair points and goal difference.
Weaknesses
The Ivory Coast defeat leaves no room for a slow start on Matchday 2.
Ecuador’s finishing problem followed them into the tournament despite good moments against Ivory Coast.
A narrow win over Curacao may still leave them needing something against Germany.
Model projection
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
Emerse Fae · 4-2-3-1
Beat Ecuador 1-0 on MD1
+375 group win
Team overview
Ivory Coast produced the result that reshaped Group E. Amad Diallo started on the bench against Ecuador but scored the 90th-minute winner, and that should push him strongly into the Matchday 2 starting XI. The opener also confirmed that Fae’s team can win a tight, low-margin World Cup game without abandoning the defensive structure that made them so difficult to score against in qualifying. Germany in Toronto is a much harder test, but Ivory Coast now have the luxury of playing it from a position of strength.
Probable XI vs Germany: 4-2-3-1
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
The Ecuador win gives Ivory Coast the strongest qualification position behind Germany.
Amad Diallo’s match-winning impact gives Fae a major attacking option from the start or bench.
The clean sheet continues the defensive identity that carried the side through qualifying.
Weaknesses
Germany’s wide rotations and set-piece delivery will be a much bigger test than Ecuador’s attack.
Fae has a selection decision in attack after Amad scored from the bench and Diomande also impressed.
A heavy defeat to Germany would undo some of the goal-difference benefit from the Ecuador win.
Model projection
🇨🇼Curacao
Dick Advocaat · 4-2-3-1
Lost World Cup debut 7-1 vs Germany
+10000 group win
Team overview
Curacao’s World Cup debut was brutal on the scoreboard but still historic. Livano Comenencia scored the country’s first World Cup goal, while Eloy Room, Leandro Bacuna, Juninho Bacuna, Tahith Chong and Jurgen Locadia all started against Germany. The challenge now is recovery. A -6 goal difference after Matchday 1 leaves very little room for error, so the Ecuador match is about staying alive in the wildcard race and showing that the group opener was a mismatch rather than the full measure of the team.
Probable XI vs Ecuador: 4-2-3-1
Ratings
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Comenencia’s goal gives Curacao a historic moment and a positive attacking reference point.
The Bacuna brothers and Chong give the side enough senior experience to regroup quickly.
Ecuador’s loss means the next opponent will be under pressure, which can create counter-attacking chances.
Weaknesses
A -6 goal difference makes the third-place route extremely difficult.
The Germany match showed how quickly elite movement can pull Curacao’s back line apart.
Curacao probably need at least a point against Ecuador to keep any realistic qualification hopes alive.
Model projection
