Barcelona blew up an opportunity to leapfrog Atletico Madrid at the top of LaLiga as they lost to Granada at home despite having a 1-0 lead. Still two points behind Los Colchoneros, Blaugrana cannot afford to drop points again when they take on Valencia at Mestalla on Sunday.
Barcelona is a massive -263 favorite on William Hill Sportsbook to get three points and keep the pressure on Atletico Madrid. Check out the latest news and stats and see the best Valencia vs. Barcelona betting pick.
Valencia vs. Barcelona
Three-way: 1: Valencia +650; X: +425 Draw; 2: Barcelona -263
Spread +1.5: Valencia -110; Barcelona +104
Total 3.5 Goals: Over +104; Under -111
Both Teams to Score: Yes -161; No +133
Continuing their least fruitful LaLiga campaign of the last decade, bottom half club Valencia cannot yet rest, given teams across the last five seasons have been relegated with as many as 38 points. However, with survival almost assured, they have little more to play for other than the preservation of a solid recent H2H history with Barcelona.
In fact, Valencia earned a result from all but one of six clashes with Barcelona in all competitions since 2018/19 (W2, D3, L1), to accompany a win/draw rate of 62.50% as a home outsider this LL season. That correlates with three LL home wins vs clubs inside the top eight at the beginning of the weekend.
Javier Gracia cannot count on Jasper Cillessen (knee), but the rest of the players are healthy and ready to go.
- Daniel Wass has scored Valencia’s first goal in three of their last six LL home outings
- Referee José María Sánchez Martínez has awarded just one red card across his 15 LL matches this term
Barcelona’s title challenge has faltered of late, with a shock defeat to Granada (Apr 29) leading them to their second-lowest 33-game points tally in a LaLiga season within the last decade. The result marked just the second of 20 LL starts in which they failed to win after opening the scoring, and the second of 19 where they failed to convert a HT lead into a win.
Curiously though, Barcelona also currently enjoys some of the division’s best records when conceding the opening goal (W4, D4, L5) and when trailing at the break (W1, D1, L3). The visitors also boast a sound win rate of 68.75% as a traveling favorite.
Ronald Koeman will be without Martin Braithwaite (ankle), Philippe Coutinho (knee), and Anssumane Fati (knee).
- Lionel Messi has now recorded the first match goal in six of Barcelona’s last 14 LaLiga fixtures, though only two (33.33%) of his six decisive goals this term have also been match openers
- Barca scored in each of their last 16 matches in all competitions
Barcelona won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L2), but is without a victory in the last two (D1, L1). Valencia is unbeaten in the past two meetings at Mestalla (W1, D1), so Barcelona will have a hard job getting three points on Sunday. Given that Valencia didn’t suffer a home loss in the last eight LaLiga games, that task is looking even harder, and that’s why I will avoid betting on the winner. Six of the previous seven H2H duels produced goals on both ends, and five of them provided over 2.5 goals. I am backing BTTS & Over 2.5 goals.
The Pick: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)