The derby of this weekend in Spanish LaLiga between Real Sociedad and Barcelona has the potential to provide us a lot of excitement and be a real treat. Barcelona are +100 favorites on William Hill Sportsbook to get a win and stay in 2nd place behind Atletico Madrid. Right now, Barca are four points behind Diego Simeone’s side.
Real Sociedad must get three points if they want to keep their Champions League hopes alive. Sevilla are nine points ahead in the 4th place, so a potential loss here would mean Sociedad are out of the UCL picture. Let’s take a look at what’s the best Real Sociedad vs. Barcelona betting pick.
Real Sociedad vs. Barcelona
Three-way: 1: Real Sociedad +250; X: +275 Draw; 2: Barcelona +100
Spread +0.5: Real Sociedad -110; Barcelona +102
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -137; Under +129
Both Teams to Score: Yes -156; No +140
REAL SOCIEDAD
Real Sociedad’s 1-0 defeat to Granada in their last LaLiga outing left their hopes of reaching the top four hanging by a thread. A win here would provide the ultimate boost, but Sociedad are clear and unanimous pre-match outsiders, and their winless record in league matches entered as underdogs this term (D3, L3) is a real concern.
The hosts’ LL home form since the end of the October international break gives some cause for encouragement (W5, D4, L1). Just one of those four draws saw Sociedad improve upon their HT standing, but with Sociedad taking 19 of a possible 21 points from LL home games led at HT (W6, D1), there is a clear key to victory for the Basque club.
Imanol Alguacil will be without Aritz Elustondo (ankle), Miguel Angel Moya (knee), and Luca Sangalli (knee). Alex Sola (knee) and Joseba Zaldua (muscle) are also out, while David Silva (back) is questionable.
Betting Trends:
- Mikel Merino bagged Sociedad’s winner in their last LL home outing (10’), meaning that he accounts for each of his side’s last three openers to arrive inside the first 15 minutes of a LL home win
- The last 15 league H2Hs have averaged 8.87 total shots on target per-game
BARCELONA
Barcelona remain in the title race, and the new life within their once-ailing cause is largely supplemented by handicap-beating wins. Seven of their last nine league victories fall in that category, and all but one of those seven emphatic wins saw Barcelona win both halves.
Ronald Koeman’s men can also attribute much of their recovery to a preceding run of eight straight LaLiga away wins. Seven of those victorious road trips saw Barcelona lead at the break, and at the tail-end of that same eight-game sequence, seven of the last nine individual halves played specifically saw Barcelona win 1-0.
Koeman cannot count on Philippe Coutinho (knee), Anssumane Fati (knee), Gerard Pique (knee), and Sergi Roberto (muscle).
Betting Trends:
- Young defender Óscar Mingueza wrote a new chapter, scoring his very first league goal for Barcelona just days ago in a 4-1 win over Huesca
- Barcelona are undefeated in the last seven games in all competitions and are 17 games without a loss in LaLiga
Match Prediction
Barcelona won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1), including the last three, while Blaugrana are unbeaten in the past five meetings at Reale Seguros Stadium. Sociedad was on a three-game winning streak in H2H duels at home prior to that Barca’s run, while they failed to get a goal at home in just one of the last 12 H2H matches.
Even though none of Sociedad’s previous seven games in all competitions produced goals on both ends, even eight of the last ten H2H clashes produced goals on both sides, so I am going with BTTS here.
The Pick: BTTS YES (-156)
