Day 3 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup brings another full slate of matches, headlined by Mexico’s first group stage match against a talented Poland squad led by the world’s best striker in Robert Lewandowski. Here, we give our best bet for Mexico vs Poland in our soccer betting picks from the World Cup.
Lewandowski is hungry to have a successful World Cup to finally silence the critics who point to his relative lack of international success compared to his sterling club career. Meanwhile, El Tri hope to make it business as usual with a result against Poland and take a step further to another qualification to the knockout rounds at the World Cup.
With Argentina likely to top the group, this match could determine the entire tournament for both Mexico and Poland. World Cup betting odds list Mexico as slight favorites at +150, while Poland is +210 to get the three points. The draw is priced at +200 odds and the total goals is set at 2.5.
Mexico vs Poland Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Poland Draw No Bet (+150) |
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This game will be played at Stadium 974 at 11:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 22, 2022.
Why Bet On Poland:
✅ Poland has the best player on the pitch in Robert Lewandowski. The former Dortmund and Bayern striker is now at Barca and is a cut above the El Tri squad in terms of quality. Expect Lewandowski to give the Mexico defenders problems.
✅ Mexico struggled with far worse strikers than Lewandowski during CONCACAF Qualifying. Cyle Larin famously scored two goals on the El Tri defense in the pivotal fixture that gave Canada first place in qualifying.
✅ Striker Raul Jimenez is unlikely to start at against Poland, further weakening a Mexico attack that is already missing Jesus Corona.
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Mexico
El Tri will rely on their experience and tradition of group stage success in their quest to achieve another run at the Round of 16. Mexico has far more success in the World Cup than their opponents, advancing out of the groups in every tournament since 1994.
Mexico will rely on that experience and a hopeful advantage in the midfield to control the match. Maintaining possession and keeping the ball away from Lewandowski will be crucial to getting a result. If Hector Herrera and Ajax’s Edson Alvarez can dictate the pace of the match, El Tri will have a much greater chance of securing the three points over Poland.
The big question mark for Mexico will be the question of who is going to score the goals in Qatar. Raul Jiminez isn’t fit enough to play 90 minutes and hasn’t been scoring goals in the Premier League for Wolverhampton. Hirving Lozano has pace and a nose for goal but Mexico may have one of the worst attacks of a nation expected to compete to get out of the group stage in Qatar.
Poland
Poland’s path to success is simple. Defend well and provide quality chances to Lewandowski and they may just do well enough to get to the Round of 16.
Poland will also be motivated to make their trip to Qatar a successful one after two embarrassing tournaments. 2018’s World Cup needed due to losses to Senegal and Colombia and their time in the Euros came to an end thanks to defeats to Sweden and Slovakia. With Lewandowski only getting older, this may be the last time for Poland to enjoy a deep tournament run with their nation’s greatest ever player leading the line.
It will be interesting to see if Lewandowski will finally get the chances required to produce a high number of goals. Lewandowski has one of the best non-penalty xG rates in Europe at 0.81 and one of the best shots per 90 averages. Those numbers come with his Barca teammates getting him the ball, a challenge the Polish players will have to step up to in matching the quality playmaking needed to help their striker score the goals.
