Updated June 28, 2026
Round of 32 | Group E winner vs Group D third place | June 29, 2026 | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA | 4:30 PM ET
Germany and Paraguay meet in Foxborough with a place in the World Cup Round of 16 on the line, with the market making 4-time winners Germany heavy favorites.
With Paraguay qualifying through the back door thanks to a fortunate win over Turkey and a bore draw against Australia, it is easy to see why Group E winners Germany are the bookmakers darlings, but there is no value in the moneyline. Instead, back Die Mannschaft to cover the spread against a limited Paraguay side.
Pick: Germany -1.5 -105
Confidence: 3 out of 5
The Germany moneyline is too short to be useful on its own. At around -300, it asks bettors to pay a heavy price for the most likely outcome. The handicap is the better way to attack the matchup. Germany -1.5 gives a stronger payout and still fits the most realistic game script: Germany controlling possession, pinning Paraguay deep, and eventually creating enough chances for a 2-goal margin.
There is a reason to avoid getting carried away. Paraguay looked much better after the opening 4-1 defeat to the United States, with Gustavo Alfaro reverting to type by bleeding out 4 points from two tepid encounters against Turkey and Australia. This is not a team that will afford Germany the space they desire, and they will look to grind their way through another opponent here.
But Germany are a different level of test. Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz give Julian Nagelsmann a flexible attacking unit that can rotate between the lines, drag center-backs out of shape, and create overloads around the edge of the box.
Paraguay can defend narrow for long spells, but they will struggle if Germany move the ball quickly enough to isolate full-backs and attack second balls, and cannot expect the likes of Havertz and Wirtz to miss high-quality chances like Turkey did on Matchday 2.
Paraguay have Miguel Almiron returning from suspension after becoming the first player sent off for covering their mouth, so their counter-attacking threat is stronger than it was against Australia. But Diego Gomez is suspended, which removes an important midfield piece, while Sunderland's Omar Alderete is a defensive injury concern. Against Germany, losing structure in either midfield or central defense is a serious problem.
Germany also have a point to prove. The Ecuador defeat did not stop them winning the group, but it did take some shine off the early tournament form. In a knockout match against a side that will likely defend deep, the German response should be sharp. The pick is not based on Paraguay being hopeless, but is based on Germany having enough chance volume and attacking variety to win by 2 against a team that conceded over 1.5 xG against motivated opponents in the group phase.
The winners of this match are likely to face tournament favorites France, who are heavy favorites for their clash with Sweden on Tuesday.
The biggest risk to the handicap is Paraguay’s ability to slow the match down. If Germany do not score early, Paraguay will grow into the defensive task and Almiron’s return gives them a real transition outlet. But if Germany break through first, the match should open up enough for the second goal to follow.
Clean build: ermany to win + Germany Over 5.5 corners + Paraguay Under 1.5 goals. This fits the expected pressure script better than a basic goals parlay. Germany should spend long spells in Paraguay’s half, force corners through Wirtz, Musiala and Sane, and still limit Paraguay’s attack even with Almiron back.
Aggressive build: Germany -1.5 + Havertz anytime scorer + Germany clean sheet. This is the 2-0 or 3-0 script, with Germany’s central forward converting pressure and Paraguay struggling to create enough without Diego Gomez.
Germany projected XI (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz
Paraguay projected XI (4-4-2): Gill; Caceres, Balbuena, Velazquez, Alonso; Almiron, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio; Enciso, Avalos
Lineups are projected and subject to late changes. Germany are without Nico Schlotterbeck for the rest of the tournament, while Paraguay welcome back Miguel Almiron but are without suspended midfielder Diego Gomez. Omar Alderete remains an injury concern.
Score Projection: Germany 3 - Paraguay 0
Win Probability: Germany 75%, Paraguay 11%, Draw 14%
Germany are the stronger side in every major area, but Paraguay’s defensive reset after the USA defeat means this should not be treated like a walkover. Alfaro’s team can frustrate opponents, and Almiron’s return gives them a better counter-attacking outlet than they had in the final group game.
The pick is Germany -1.5 at around -105 to -120. The moneyline is too short, and Germany to advance is safer but offers little return. The handicap is the right compromise: Germany should have enough attacking pressure, set-piece threat, and bench quality to turn control into a 2-goal knockout win.
Who is favored in Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany are heavy favorites, with the moneyline priced around -300. Paraguay are big underdogs after qualifying as a third-place team from Group D.
What is the best bet for Germany vs Paraguay?
The best bet is Germany -1.5 if available around -105 to -120. Germany should win, but the moneyline is too short to offer much value.
Why bet Germany -1.5 instead of the moneyline?
The moneyline requires a big stake for a small return. Germany -1.5 needs a 2-goal win, which fits the projected gap in attacking quality and chance creation.
Is Miguel Almiron suspended for Paraguay?
No. Almiron is back after serving his suspension against Australia. Diego Gomez is suspended, however, and Omar Alderete is an injury concern.
What is the predicted score?
The projected score is Germany 3 - Paraguay 0.
What is the best player prop?
Kai Havertz anytime scorer is the best player prop if he starts. Germany Team Total Over 1.5 Goals is the cleaner team-based alternative.
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