The Premier League returns this weekend with Round 27 after a busy midweek when the leaders welcome their city rivals Manchester United at Etihad Stadium. Manchester City is a strong -200 favorite on William Hill Sportsbook to secure a victory and increase the gap between the clubs to 17 points.
United, on the other side, is aware that the title is out of their hands and they will be fighting for one of the remaining three Champions League spots. At the moment, the Red Devils are in 2nd place, but a lot of teams are chasings those UCL places and it will be tough to remain in the top four. Take a look at the latest news and stats and see what’s the best Manchester City vs. Manchester United betting pick.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Three-way: 1: Manchester City -200; X: +350 Draw; 2: Manchester United +600
Spread -1: Manchester City -115; Manchester United +106
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -133; Under +118
Both Teams to Score: Yes -125; No +100
Champions-elect Manchester City are three-quarters of their way to a new world record of 28 straight wins in professional football and could surpass the club record of 28 games unbeaten. Impressively, City’s average margin of victory across their current winning streak is 2.24, with two-thirds (14) of those 21 wins seeing City lead at halftime.
Man City have also beaten a second-half handicap in seven (50%) of their last 14 wins, in addition to winning all of the last 20 games to see them score first. City did both in January’s EFL Cup H2H (W 2-0), but with City last winning a home H2H after conceding first back in January 2010, there is a potential weak spot.
Pep Guardiola cannot count on Nathan Ake (muscle), but the rest of the players are healthy and ready to go.
- İlkay Gündoğan has averaged one second-half goal per match across City’s last four clean-sheet PL home wins to yield a 2+ goal margin
- City have the advantage from PL derbies standing 0-0 at HT since Sheikh Mansour’s club takeover in 2008 (FT: W3, D4, L1)
Still not conceding over 1.5 goals on league travels since Boxing Day, Manchester United also pursue a record. They are unbeaten in 21 Premier League away matches (W13, D8), but four of the draws came in the run’s last four games, and it is still six short of equaling Arsenal’s 27-game record.
Man United lead the top-flight H2H stakes (W58, D48, L45), but they are currently just a goal ahead in that series (F 209, A 208). The Red Devils saw three of their decisive goals across the last four wins therein come between the 16th-30th minute. Curiously, the last two of those first-half deciders both came via Anthony Martial.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be without Phil Jones (knee), Juan Mata (muscle), Paul Pogba (thigh), and David de Gea (personal reasons).
- Bruno Fernandes netted 60% of United’s competitive away goals in February, and each of his last four converted penalties has come in victories producing over 2.5 total goals
- United recorded four 0-0 results in the last ten games in all competitions, including three in a row
Manchester City won five of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L4), including the most recent one in the EFL Cup when it was 2-0 for the Citizens. Guardiola’s side didn’t allow a goal in the last three meetings, but United managed to beat the rivals in three of the last four duels at Etihad.
The reverse clash produced no goals and a boring game in the first half of the season, but I think that’s about to change on Sunday. I believe we saw enough of uninteresting derby matches in England this season, and it’s time for a classic showdown. Even though none of the previous four H2H matches produced more than two goals, I am going with over 2.5 on this occasion.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-133)