Day four of the Euro 2020 qualifiers finally brought some action and upsets. Hungary, going off at +500, knocked off World Cup runner ups Croatia 2-1. Two other notable results was Germany going into Netherlands and winning 3-2 after a late winner by Nico Schulz. Germany was the underdog in the game going off at +200. The other upset on the day was Israel, who went off at +229, defeating Austria 4-2. Belgium, Russia, Scotland and Poland all had straightforward wins while Wales and Northern Ireland escaped with one goal victories. The only tie on the day was Slovenia and North Macedonia who had a 1-1 stalemate on Sunday.
Monday gives us seven more games and plenty of value, so here are my three best bets.
Portugal (-175) vs Serbia
Portugal got off to a poor start, in the European title defense, finishing with a scoreless draw, at home, against 30th ranked Ukraine. The 6th ranked nation in FIFA will look to bounce back when the welcome Serbia, currently ranked 30th, to Portugal. In their last 10 home matches Portugal has accumulated four wins, five draws and one loss. Serbia has been in great form on the road having compiled six wins, four draws and one loss in their last 10 road matches. I think Portugal plays with a sense of urgency in this one, as they do not want to start off qualifying dropping more than two points at home, so take Portugal to win an ugly one.
Kosovo (+150) vs Bulgaria
The 130th ranked nation in FIFA is currently on an 11 match unbeaten run. Kosovo opened up their first ever European Qualifying game with an impressive 2-2 draw against 10th ranked Denmark. The Dardanians welcome Bulgaria, on Monday, who are currently ranked 48th in the latest FIFA rankings. Bulgaria is coming off a disappointing 1-1 home draw with Montenegro to open their qualifying campaign. Kosovo went 3-0 at home in their Nations League home matches, albeit against poor competition, and are currently on seven match unbeaten run in Kosovo. Bulgaria has just one win in their last ten home matches and are struggling to get the ball in the back of the net. In those ten road games they have scored more than one goal just twice and have given up more than three goals five times. I like Kosovo to get the win here and move into the second spot in Group A.
Over 2, 2.5 goals (-118): Montenegro vs England
England, currently ranked 5th in the world, cannot seem to stop scoring. They’ve scored at least two goals in four consecutive games and scored five in their Euro Qualifying opener against the Czech Republic. The Three Lions travel to Montenegro, currently ranked 46th, looking to extend their Group A lead. Montenegro have not given up more than two goals at home since March 2018, but they have not faced competition like they will see on Monday. Just like in their opening game I think England can hit this over themselves, so take over 2, 2.5 goals in this one.
European Qualifiers Record: 7-5