Real Madrid travels to always unpleasant San Mames to take on Bilbao in LaLiga Round 37 on Sunday. The reigning champions need to get three points as they are two points behind Atletico Madrid, and their title defense is on the ropes at the moment. Bilbao, on the other hand, is out of the European places for the next year, so they have no real motivation in this one.
Real Madrid is a -175 favorite on William Hill Sportsbook to get a win and enter the final round with title hopes alive. Check out the latest news and stats and see the best Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid betting pick.
Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid
Three-way: 1: Bilbao +480; X: +320 Draw; 2: Real Madrid -175
Spread +1: Bilbao -115; Real Madrid +112
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -119; Under +112
Both Teams to Score: Yes -115; No -104
Fading towards the end of the season, Athletic Bilbao’s 1-0 defeat to Huesca means they’ve work to do to secure a top-half finish following just two wins in 13 competitive matches (D7, L4). It’s a familiar tale though as they’ve averaged just 0.5 points per game during the final two LaLiga fixtures of their last four campaigns (W1, D1, L6)!
Following two consecutive 2-2 draws here, they’re now unbeaten in nine home league games (W3, D6) and while they haven’t drawn three consecutive home league matches since November/December 2017, they’ve not played out three straight LL score draws here since February/March 1997. Coincidentally, those matches all finished 2-2, a scoreline last featuring in a H2H here in September 1999.
Marcelino cannot count on numerous key players. Iker Muniain (muscle), Yuri Berchiche (muscle), Yeray Alvarez (muscle), Ander Capa (knee), Lekue (illness), and Peru Nolaskoain (ankle) are all out.
- Jon Morcillo opened the scoring inside 15 minutes in Athletic’s last two home league matches
- There’s been a goal in or after the 85th minute in four of Athletic’s last five league matches
A repeat of that could be costly for title-chasing Real Madrid who must win as they currently trail league leaders Atletico Madrid by two points, although they’ve not lost a league H2H anywhere since March 2015 (W7, D4). Fielding their youngest LL starting XI of the season (average age: 26 years and 18 days) against Granada paid off with a 4-1 win that featured three strikes after the 70th minute – 63.64% of the goals in their last four league games have arrived during this period.
However, Los Blancos have profited from starting well on the road recently as they’ve netted seven (70%) of their last ten league away goals before HT. Now unbeaten in 13 league away matches (W8, D5), they’ve only lost once after scoring the opener in LaLiga road games this campaign (W10, D2).
Zinedine Zidane will be without Dani Carvajal (thigh), Lucas (knee), Ferland Mendy (calf), Sergio Ramos (muscle), and Raphael Varane (muscle).
- Karim Benzema has netted 13 LL goals against Athletic, the last four of which came after the 70th minute
- Real Madrid is unbeaten in the last 13 road matches in LaLiga
Real Madrid won five of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L1), including three of the last five (D1, L1), while Los Galacticos are undefeated in the past five visits to San Mames (W3, D2). Although they have the second-best defense in the league, Real Madrid managed to keep the net intact only once in the last five games in all competitions. Considering they are playing without the entire back four, I am backing Bilbao to score at least once here. I wouldn’t exclude Real’s failure on Sunday, so Atletico Madrid could win its title before the final round. That’s why I am not going to bet on Real to win. I am going with BTTS instead.
The Pick: BTTS YES (-115)