A top four battle takes place in Italy this weekend, Saturday, March 7, 2020, as fourth place Atalanta host top of the table Lazio. Atalanta are looking to stay ahead in the race for the final Champions League spot, while Lazio are looking to stay atop the Serie A table.
Atalanta enter play in fourth place, occupying the final Champions League spot, and have a three point cushion over fifth place AS Roma, plus a game in hand. It is really a two team race for that final Champions League spot as sixth place Napoli are nine point back and have played one more game than Atalanta. The club from Bergamo is also still alive in the Champions League as they prepare for the second leg of their Round of 16 clash against Valencia. Atalanta hold a 4-1 lead and the second leg will be played behind closed doors due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Lazio currently sit atop the Serie A standings, with 62 points, but are firmly in a three team race the rest of the year. Juventus are right on their tails with 60 points, plus a game in hand, and Inter sits eight points, but have two games in hand. Lazio have an advantage over the other two clubs as they only have Serie A to focus on the rest of the way.
Below is my pick for the Serie A action between Atalanta and Lazio. All odds are from PointsBet Sportsbook.
Atalanta (+110) vs Lazio (+220) Draw (+260)
Atalanta visited relegation candidate Lecce, last time out, and fired five second half goals to come away with a 7-2 drubbing. It was tied 2-2 at the half, but less than 20 minutes into the second half the score was 5-2 Atalanta and they were rolling. Atalanta has now won five straight games, are unbeaten in their last seven games overall, and cannot stop scoring goals. Atalanta are just the sixth best home team in Serie A having won 20 points thanks to a 6-2-4 record.
Lazio hosted mid-table Bologna, last time out, and came away with a not-so-straightforward 2-0 win. The hosts went up 2-0 within the first 21 minutes, but it was not a comfortable final hour as the visitors actually netted two goals that got called off with VAR. Regardless, Lazio’s unbeaten run extended to seven games with the win over Bologna. Lazio are the third best road team in Serie A having won 26 points thanks to an 8-2-2 record.
Series History: These two clubs have played tight games over the past five years with Lazio holding a slight 4-3-3 advantage over the past 10 meetings. Lazio and Atalanta played a wildly entertaining 3-3 game when the two met in mid-October.
Game Prediction: I expect a lot of goals in this one, as is the usual for Atalanta, so I am backing over 3.5 goals at +148
2020 Results: 28-19