Roma is melting down at the moment, which is a chance for Lazio to get three points and stay alive in the Champions League race. However, the form is not important when it comes to Derby della Capitale, and that makes the outcome of this game quite hard to predict.
Lazio is a +125 favorite on William Hill Sportsbook to beat Roma in this Serie A clash and get closer to the 4th place that leads to the UCL next season. Check out the latest news and stats and see the best AS Roma vs. Lazio betting pick.
AS Roma vs. Lazio
Three-way: 1: Roma +210; X: +250 Draw; 2: Lazio +359
Spread 0: Roma +134; Lazio -133
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -182; Under +154
Both Teams to Score: Yes -200; No +179
The Eternal City is set for the 156th Derby della Capitale in Serie A history. Roma holds the historic bragging rights (W55, D60, L40), but has lost three of their last four SA matches, putting their participation in the UEFA Europa League qualifiers in danger. Each of those defeats saw Roma concede a first-half opener.
Such early setbacks extended Roma’s poor record after conceding first (W1, D2, L9), and with no team taking part in fewer SA games where both teams scored (19), the desperation not to concede first could be reflected in a high card count. On that note, seven of the last eight H2Hs have featured at least six yellow cards (6.71 per game).
Paulo Fonseca will be without Riccardo Calafiori (muscle), Amadou Diawara (muscle), Pau Lopez (shoulder), and Leonardo Spinazzola (muscle). Jordan Veretout (muscle) and Nicolo Zaniolo (knee) are also out.
- Roma’s Serie A top-scorer Henrikh Mkhitaryan (11 goals) has scored seven of his last eight SA goals before the break
- Roma won only three of the last ten matches in all competitions
For their part, Lazio is still fighting for a top-four finish and has won eight of their last ten Serie A matches, netting 36.07% of their total league goals this term during the run. Further to the likely importance of the first goal, only three sides have recorded more than Lazio’s 11 SA clean-sheet wins this term.
Lazio will believe that they can clinch a first league double over their rivals since 2011/12, and could even win all four individual H2H halves of a league season for the very first time. Yet, they appear just as susceptible to a bad result after a poor start, as no current top-half side has suffered more than Lazio’s nine league HT/FT defeats this term.
Simone Inzaghi cannot count on Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (broken nose).
- Ciro Immobile recently became the first player to score 20+ goals for Lazio inside four different Serie A seasons, and four of his last five strikes have arrived in or after the 70th minute
- Lazio have seen each of their last eight outings witness at least one goal in or after the 80th minute
Lazio won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3), including two of the last four (D2), while Roma was victorious in four of the past six meetings (D1, L1) when they were nominal hosts. These rivals usually produce a lot of goals in H2H duels, and I have no doubt that will be the case on Saturday. Six of the previous nine H2Hs produced goals on both sides, which occurred in each of the last five clashes when Roma was the host. Given the low odds on BTTS, I will spice it up a bit and go with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.
The Pick: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-139)