The Serie A is giving us an interesting duel between AC Milan and Napoli at San Siro on Sunday. Milan still have a chance to win the title, even though they are six points behind their city rivals Inter. The Rossoneri are slight +160 favorites on William Hill Sportsbook to secure a win over Napoli and stay in the title race.
Napoli, on the other hand, is fighting for the Champions League spot, and are currently in 6th place with three points behind the 4th placed Roma and a game in hands. They will be motivated to get a positive result against Milan, who had a midweek match against Manchester United in the Europa League. Have a look at the latest news and stats and see the best AC Milan vs. Napoli betting pick.
AC Milan vs. Napoli
Three-way: 1: AC Milan +160; X: +234 Draw; 2: Napoli +196
Spread 0: AC Milan -111; Napoli +110
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -104; Under -102
Both Teams to Score: Yes -137; No +127
Despite recording two wins in their last three Serie A matches, AC Milan still lag behind rivals Internazionale in the title race. That said, they clearly have the ability to dominate from the outset, having led at HT in a league-high 16 of their 17 SA victories recorded thus far. Curiously, six of the last seven such matches saw Milan precisely leading 1-0 at the break.
Milan have, however, won only one of their last six competitive home matches within 90 minutes (W1, D3, L2). Additionally, the Rossoneri have gained only 39.29% of their total points tally at home, which is the second-worst rate amongst all teams. Additionally, they have won consecutive SA home matches this term just once.
Stefano Pioli will be without Ismael Bennacer, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Daniel Maldini, Mario Mandzukic, and Ante Rebic are also out.
- Rafael Leão has scored five Serie A goals this season, with two of the last three arriving inside the opening 30 minutes
- Five of the last six H2Hs have seen the opener arriving within the first 25 minutes
Napoli might be the right opponent for Milan, as the Partenopei are winless here in four competitive H2Hs, scoring just once during the run (D3, L1). Furthermore, each of their last eight competitive wins have arrived at home. However, Napoli are now on a four-game unbeaten run (W3, D1), netting exactly three goals in the last two therein.
The visitors are winless in six competitive away outings (D1, L5), conceding 3+ goals in four, whilst losing despite a +1 handicap in the other four. Additionally, Napoli have led at the break just once across their last 11 competitive away fixtures while also losing in three away matches that stood level at HT.
Gennaro Gattuso cannot count on Faouzi Ghoulam and Andrea Petagna.
- Lorenzo Insigne has scored three goals across the last two matches, with two arriving beyond the 75th minute
- Napoli are winless in the last seven games on the road in all competitions
Napoli won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L2), but are without a win in the last five (D3, L2), while three of the past four meetings at San Siro ended without a winner. With even four of the last seven duels finishing as a draw, I am backing another stalemate in this one.
Milan are missing a lot of key players in the attack, so it’s not going to be easy to score, while Napoli are struggling on the road. I believe a draw is a fair outcome. My additional pick will be both teams to score. Napoli scored at least two goals in each of their last five matches, while Milan found the back of the net in each of the previous five. Each of the last three H2Hs produced goals on both sides.
The Pick: Draw (+234)
Additional Pick: BTTS YES (-137)