The NBA playoffs take center stage on May 16, 2025, with a one-game slate that features action in the second round. An Western Conference Game 6 is the focus of our top pick in pro basketball for Thursday, as one team looks to keep their season alive while another looks to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Our NBA betting experts have analyzed the latest odds and identified the NBA best bets for today’s games below.
NBA Best Bets for May 16, 2025
| Game | Best Bet |
|---|---|
| Thunder vs Nuggets | Thunder -4.5 (-110) |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets – 8:30 PM ET
Our best bet for the NBA on Thursday is for the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the spread as a road favorite in Game 6 of their series with the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is always going to be a threat for the Nuggets. But the depth around Jokic just hasn’t been enough to help his team gain the upper hand in this series. Look for the Thunder’s depth to be the deciding factor in this game, as OKC should win and advance to face the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
Best Bet: Thunder -4.5 (-110) over Nuggets
Game Notes
- OKC has a huge depth advantage going into this game.
- The Thunder are 3-1 on the road so far in the NBA playoffs.
Today’s NBA Game Previews
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Why ATS.io For Your NBA Best Bets?
Bet smarter this NBA season with expert-backed insights and the best NBA bets designed to give you an edge. Our team of seasoned analysts, with decades of combined experience, dives deep into every matchup, crunching data and analyzing trends to deliver winning picks daily. From point spreads to over/unders, we break down the stats and narratives that matter most, ensuring you’re armed with actionable information.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting, our NBA best bets are backed by the expertise and trustworthiness that come from years of success in the industry. With meticulous research, a commitment to transparency, and a passion for the game, we aim to guide you through every step of the NBA season, from opening night to the Finals.
What is an NBA Best Bet?
NBA best bets are the NBA picks that our team of experts feels the most confident about each day in the National Basketball Association. Our experts look at every NBA game throughout the NBA season. They compare their NBA score predictions to the numbers that are available in the betting markets. Where they see the most value is where they place the designation of being a best bet.
On this page, bettors will find our best NBA bets for each day. These are not necessarily the biggest games of today’s NBA slate, but rather the best bets from the entire slate of NBA action.
How Do We Make Our NBA Best Bets Each Day?
When making our top NBA picks for each day, our NBA experts compare their projections to the betting lines that are available at each of the NBA sportsbooks out there. For example, if a game between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies has a point spread of Warriors -3, but our sports betting experts project the Grizzlies winning the game outright, you’d see the Grizzlies as a recommended bet on this page.
To make those picks and predictions, our NBA bettors use a combination of advanced statistics and other criteria to evaluate each NBA game. As a result, you can trust that the NBA picks that we recommend as best bets are backed by data, rather than being conjured out of thin air with no advantage whatsoever.
Does ATS Use NBA Computer Picks?
When coming up with free NBA picks, our experts do utilize the ability to make NBA computer picks work for you. To do this, our handicappers maintain databases of NBA information, which they use to project the scores of each NBA game. This practice can help remove any biases from the process of NBA betting, as the numbers rarely lie.
Of course, the criteria for our NBA betting picks are not completely based on the statistics used to make projections. Those computer picks have to be adjusted to account for the deluge of injuries to each key player that can make NBA betting more challenging than betting on most sports.
How to Win With The ATS.io NBA Best Bets?
Our expert NBA picks can help both novice and experienced bettors be better at NBA betting. But there are a few things beyond utilizing our NBA predictions that bettors should do in order to be as successful as possible when wagering on The Association.
Bankroll Management
The most important thing when doing any sort of sports betting is to exercise strong bankroll management. This means betting the same amount on every game, rather than betting different amounts based on wins or losses in previous games. Doing this will level out the amount of potential winnings for each bet, but will also make sure that a losing bet will not wipe out your bankroll.
It is human nature to want to bet more after a loss to recoup those losses. It is also human nature to want to bet more on bigger games, such as those in the NBA playoffs. But this can be detrimental to achieving the ultimate goal of sports gambling, which is to win long-term, and not just on one individual wager.
Trust Your Instincts
While bettors may notice a trend of NBA consensus picks emerging for a given NBA game, they should always second guess things when locking in their NBA picks. Fans who live in a specific market may have knowledge from local NBA reporters that handicappers do not, for example, and bettors should always trust their knowledge and use it to supplement our expert NBA predictions.
Types Of NBA Best Bets To Look For Each Day
There are several NBA bet types that we will highlight on this page on a regular basis. These are the most common types of NBA wagers, which we will go over here.
Spread Bets
Point spread wagers allow NBA fans to bet on one team or the other in a game, with a point spread being applied to the side that they wager on. For example, the Boston Celtics could be a three-point favorite against the Sacramento Kings. In that scenario, Boston would have three points subtracted from their score, or the Kings would have three points added to their score. The team with the higher score after that handicap is applied wins for the purposes of this market.
Over/Under Bets
When it comes to the over/under, or totals market, it does not matter which team comes away with the win. Instead, the goal is to predict the total points that will be scored by the two teams in this matchup. This is a betting market where advanced analytics can really help make the best NBA picks today, such as tempo and efficiency metrics. The total is often closely correlated to the outcome of player props such as player points and threes made.
Moneyline Bet
Finally, the moneyline is a market where the goal is to simply predict which of the two teams will win an upcoming game. This market is available for every game throughout the season, and features odds that are very different than you will find in spread and total markets.
When betting on the moneyline, the team that is the favorite will come with odds that require a higher risk amount to earn the desired profit. The team that is the underdog, meanwhile, will come with odds that require less risk to win that same amount. The task at hand is to navigate those different odds to determine which team has the most value to win the game.
Best NBA Parlay Picks Today: May 16, 2025
