The Calgary Flames head into Wednesday’s road game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on a three-game winning streak. The Lightning are red hot as well, riding a win streak and armed with a goaltender playing elite hockey. Before the puck is dropped in Tampa, continue reading to get my Flames vs Lightning prediction from Florida.
Our Flames vs Lightning Pick
- Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning –1.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
Tampa Bay enters this game riding a four‑game win streak. Their most recent victory came against the Washington Capitals, a 5–3 win in which they enjoyed a dominant opening period. The Lightning have now won 11 of their last 14 games and have climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division. Calgary has found some footing themselves, capturing three consecutive victories. While that gives them a modicum of confidence, their overall record of 8–13–3 suggests that they still have plenty of work to do.
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing at an elite level in net for the Lightning. He is 9-5-2 with a 2.36 GAA and a .913 save percentage this year. He should give Tampa the upper hand against Calgary’s Dustin Wolf, who is 6-11-2 with a 3.02 GAA and a .895 save percentage.
Key skaters
Tampa Bay’s offense is led by elite forwards who are hot right now. Players like Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel have been producing at a steady clip and will try to continue producing here. On the Flames side, Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson have provided sparks. Kadri leads the team in assists while Andersson arrives riding a multi‑game point streak and is contributing both goals and setup plays.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | Over 0.5 Points |
| Brandon Hagel | Over 0.5 Goals |
| Rasmus Andersson | Over 0.5 Points |
| Nazem Kadri | Over 0.5 Assists |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between the Flames and Lightning.
- The Flames are 14-10 on the puckline so far this season.
- The over is 15-9 in games involving the Flames this year.
- The Lightning are 9-13 on the puckline heading into this matchup.
- The under is 12-10 in Lightning games this season.
Flames vs Lightning Model Projection
Score Projection: Flames 2 – Lightning 4
Win Probability: Flames 28%, Lightning 72%
Final Thoughts
Tampa Bay comes into this game with the superior roster balance, home-ice advantage, and a clearly stronger goaltending situation. While Calgary’s recent form and signs of life offensively offer intrigue, their defensive flaws and inconsistent goaltending make me skeptical they can keep pace over 60 minutes. The Lightning should control the game and cover the puckline as a home favorite here.
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