The New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet in a huge game in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday. New England has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league so far this season and will try to continue their winning ways here. They take on a Buccaneers team that is looking like a legitimate NFC title contenders. Before kickoff from Tampa, continue reading to get my Patriots vs Buccaneers prediction.
Our Patriots vs Buccaneers Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers –2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
New England has improved markedly from what we saw a season ago. They enter this week with a 7-2 record and they have an impressive 4-0 mark on the road. They have averaged 26.3 points per game and allowed only 18.8 points per game. Quarterback Drake Maye is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions through nine games. He will try to continue his strong start to the year against a solid Bucs defense.
The Buccaneers are battle-tested and playing at home after a bye. Veteran signal-caller Baker Mayfield has thrown for 1,919 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just two interceptions in 2025 so far. The Bucs’ defense has also played an important role, holding opponents under 100 yards per game on the ground. Both of these defenses have been excellent this season and that should make for an interesting game between teams that we could see make the playoffs.
Quarterback Play
The key to this game for both quarterbacks is going to be avoiding mistakes against a quality opposing defense. These defenses are separated by just 5.2 yards per game allowed through the air. With both sides being evenly matched for the most part, the quarterback who gives their opponent fewer short fields to work with will be giving their team a huge boost.
Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- Tampa is 4-4 on over/unders so far this season.
- New England is 5-4 favoring the over for the year.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Model Projection
Score Projection: New England 24 – Tampa Bay 27
Win Probability: Patriots 43%, Buccaneers 57%
Final Thoughts
This is a great litmus test for both of these teams as they look to prove that they can beat playoff-caliber competition. But I think that the Buccaneers will be the team to get that big win on Sunday. The Bucs have won two of their three home games this season and their only home loss came against the defending champion Eagles. I’ll lay the points with the Bucs in a game that I can’t wait to watch unfold from Raymond James Stadium.
